MAYDOGMA

Best M&MD rant ever

2008-08-15T09:33:00.001-07:00

A Verse of Maydogma: Title Game Edition

2008-04-07T11:52:00.001-07:00

Thoughts while wishing the West Coast falls into the Pacific Ocean

Four #1 seeds in the Final Four = everyone in America saying “Why didn’t I just just pick that?”

Has any tournament game NOT been a blowout?

Fucking Roy Williams…

If it had been Florida and Ohio St. in the NIT finals, I could have written a book series entitled: “Picking the NIT Correctly: The Joy of Winning While Still Feeling Like a Loser.”

This tournament has been like one big “fuck you” to me switching my usual selections patterns from the last few years. Think about it:

You want to NOT pick Kansas as a 1 seed? Fine, here they are in the Finals.

You want to NOT pick Michigan St in the Elite Eight? Fine, let them win two games.

You want to NOT pick a 1 loss team? Fine, here they are in the Finals.

.You want to call the Big East overrated but pick them anyway? Fine, no Final Four teams for you.

You want to pick Duke for the Final Four? Fine, here they losing the in second round

So let’s see, it’s Tennessee vs. UConn in the woman’s finals again and….wait, it’s NOT Tennessee vs. UConn? WTF? What referee is gonna get fired for that one? Ten Bucks says a league official has already called Geno saying “Don’t worry, big guy, we’ll make it up to you next year…”

”Because I couldn’t possibly care how you did in your pool, but HAVE to tell you about mine”: 2008 Edition.

Let’s just say UCLA losing cost me 900 fucking dollars and leave it at that. Bet the farm on this prop: “In 2009, Maydog will pick against UCLA in round 1 due to spite, but UCLA will win the national championship.”

Sing it with me: IN ONE SHINING MOMENT / IT'S ALL ON THE LINE/
ONE SHINING MOMENT / THERE FROZEN IN TIME / ONE SHINING MOMENT....

Finals Prediction: Memphis 70 - Kansas 50 or Kansas 70 – Memphis 50. Either way, I’m expecting a blow out.

A Verse of Maydogma: Tournament Edition

2008-03-26T13:52:00.007-07:00

Tales from the First Weekend

If you even read the words “I’m picking Duke to make the Final Four” on this site ever again, please just punch me in the face.

(As a follow-up, I don’t think I’ve regretted a pick quicker than my Duke pick. I think it was 5 minutes into the Belmont game when I said, “OK seriously, what the fuck was I thinking?”)

Good for you, American…

Things I hate most in this world: 1) Violence 2) Racism 3) The Big Ten 4) Cats

UNLV winning their first game = the lock of the tournament every year

Cal St-Fullerton had me believing I still had the magic for about 1 half. Then reality kicked in…

Maydog’s Top 3 Teams that can Go to Hell, Under the radar Edition:

3) Cornell- Thanks for playing guys

2) Vanderbilt- 20 pts??? To a team from the MAAC?? WTF?

1) Winthrop- Maybe you should have pretended Wash St. was wearing Notre Dame jersey. Instead of scoring like 5 points in the second half, you would have scored 100 and won. Get out of my life and don’t come back.

If Ohio St wins tonight, I hereby declared myself the “King of the NIT Tournament Pools.”

This is probably where I should bring up Notre Dame’s crushing loss. Yep, they lost, it sucked. That’s all I got. Let us never bring this up again...

You mean Michigan St. may get back to the Elite Eight the one year I finally ‘give up’ on picking them? Get outta here. That never happens...

Final verdict: I was right about Georgetown being overrated. Please let me have this ONE moral victory.

I smell fried raccoon. You what that means? West Virginia must be in the Sweet 16…

Speaking of that merry bunch of hicks and their drunk driver coach, as a fan of a second tier Big East basketball program, the fact that WVA is the model for us all fills me with such rage that I want to go throw fruit at Kevin Pittsnogle, wherever he may be…

Will Gonzaga ever win a game when they’re a higher seed? Should they just ignore the seeding and pretend they are a low seed? For example: If they get a 4 seed next year, they should ask the committee to list them as a 16. They’d probably win the title…

Go ‘Nova….

New Rules for next year:

The “Lucifer has a summer home in the Missouri Valley” Rule- Never pick team for the Missouri Valley Conference - Fuck you Drake.

The “Wally Szerbiack/Dwyane Wade/Stephan Curry” Rule- Try to find the ‘tournament story’ player and pick his team to go to Finals - An awesome NBA-calibar player from a mid major going off on a scoring binge and carrying a smaller school; doesn’t this always happen ever few years? I may need actually some research next year instead of typing my column from the bathroom

The ACC Rule- Never trust a team with the ACC not named North Carolina (ok fine, and maybe Duke) in the first 2 rounds - Did you think Clemson was a lock up 18pts? Throw in Wake Forest’s history of ALWAYS failing to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and that’s enough for me.

Final verdict: I was right about Pitt, too. So what if I was wrong about EVERYTHING else?

Fucking UConn

'Overated' Conference Records

2008-03-26T08:58:00.011-07:00

Here are the records for conferences I called overated in my preview:

Big 12: 7-4
A10: 2-2
WCC: 1-3
Big East: 10-5
Big Ten: 5-2 (!)

First Round: 17-7
2nd Round: 8-9
Total: 25-16

Let there be no doubt, I'm a moron...

Final Four Picks

2008-03-20T08:38:00.010-07:00

The Mike Lupica Memorial "I couldn't possibly care about who your Final Four picks are, but here are mine" FF Post:

I just want get this documented because last year, I got all Four right, but have no lasting proof.

MAYDOG PICKS:
East: Tennessee
Midwest: Georgetown
South: Memphis
West: Duke (Dear god, What am I thinking?)

Champion: Memphis

Dream/Who I'm rooting for Final Four
East: Notre Dame
Midwest: Villanova
South: Kentucky (The Yankees factor)
West: Somehow, everyone loses

Champion: Notre Dame

Nightmare/'There is No God' Final Four
East: Indiana
Midwest: Southern Cal
South: Stanford
West: West Virginia

Champion: Southern Cal

If it happens, and I look stupid, I'll be really pissed Final Four
East: Indiana
Midwest: Wisconsin
South: Michigan State
West: Purdue

Champion: Indiana

Maydog Vs. March Madness V6

2008-03-18T20:29:00.000-07:00

Ah, so many tournaments, so many memories….

While preparing to write this column for the 6th (!) straight year, I started looking back ‘fondly’ at the memorable moments I’ve had. Who could forget the time I picked Syracuse to go to the Final Four, only to watch Gerry McNamara shoot 0 for 1,000,000?

Or, during the year that my column was published on 411mania, I suggested that picking Manhattan over Florida was moronic, then watched in horrible as the Gators typically (at the time) choked, followed the next day by an avalanche of angry emails from Manhattan alumni, pissed that I told them to stop living off one moment?

Or last year, when I called anyone who was picking against Duke in round 1 an idiot, then VCU went and upset Duke? Or when I claimed my blog would get less hits than some freaky animal porn site where some dudes bang a pig while eating strips of bacon?

Ah, fun times....

But they haven't all been littered with poor predictions. Some may remember my 'shocking' picks of Bucknell over Kansas, & NW St over Iowa (which I ignored and bet money on Iowa like an idiot). Or Carmello's National championship that I called. Or picking #1 seed St. Joe's to reach the Final Four (when no one else was) and coming within one precious minute of it being true. Or last year, when I predicted all four teams in the Final Four correctly, only I forgot to document it on this site and thus have no proof?

This year, it is truly my goal to make you screw up your office pool beyond imagination. You hear me: Final Four picks losing by 25 pts in Round 2. A Sweet Sixteen match up between a 10 and 15 seed. Maybe even a 0-32 first round that gets you a perfect "0" in your office pool. Anything's possible; if you follow my contracting, confusing, ridiculous, illogical advice, you will go down in flames. I don't just promise it; I guarantee it.

So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the free fall, as MAYDOGMA proudly presents: Maydog’s 6th annual guide on “How to lose your office pool as fast as humanly possibly.”

As a recent added challenge, I will try to include ALL 65 tournament teams at least once in the column. That way, I will have talked you out of every single team in the field. Good? Good; let's begin with my annual rules:

-The Kentucky Rule- Pick the #1 team in the country to win it all. Hey, they’re the best team in the country. The best team ALWAYS wins. Go North Carolina….

Or UCLA….

Or North Carolina…

Or UCLA…

Or…ah fuck it…

-The UCLA in 96 / Michigan State in 2001 Rule- Overrate the defending champion. Doesn’t apply this year (and thank God for that. Bye, bye Gators. Have fun winning the NIT.)

- The 'Hey, It could happen' rule- Pick a 16 seed to win.- Mount St Mary (but not Coppin State) is a juicy pick right now….Portland State is giving me a warm feeling…Mississippi Valley St. is really frisky…UT Arlington is screaming “Pick me”…Let me know how this one works out for ya…

- The Big Ten Rule- Develop a biased opinion against one specific conference. Talk yourself into calling all its members ‘overrated.’ This year’s conference is …actually, let’s draw this out a little, shall we? With such a soft bubble, lots of teams got into the tournament this year that normally wouldn’t, increasing the possibility of a conference being overrated. Here are the top 5 candidates, in order of elimination:

-The Big 12- Kansas AND Texas, two schools that never win it all, as top seeds? Oklahoma and Texas A&M underachieving? Kansas St. and Baylor as sleepers? Color me suspicious.

-The WCC- 3 teams in, but Gonzaga is really just living off its rep. Saint Mary, too.

-The A-10- Lots of hype, but the numbers don’t back it up. All year, all we heard about was how “The A-10 is this year’s MVC” and how “The A-10 could get 5 teams in” and how “Rhode Island and UMass are really good teams.” Not only did both of those teams NOT make it, but St. Joe’s and Temple both needed miracle runs in their conference tournament just to make it. Pick accordingly.

-Runner-up: The Big East- I explained this in an earlier post, but as much as it pains me, the warning signs are there. The Big East, especially Georgetown, had very few OOC victories to hang their hats on this year. Does this make them overrated? A little. Can they still win? Of course. It’s a just warning flag is all.

But of course, there’s only one winner of this coveted award. This year’s run away winner for overrated, crappy conference goes to:

- The Jenna Jameson “I’ve been screwed too many times” Big Ten Rule- Never, NEVER, NEVER (!!!!!!) pick a Big Ten team. Prediction: Not a single Big Team makes to the Sweet Sixteen. Fucking Big Ten. More on this later.

(Note: I thought about giving Michigan State another pass and hoping they’d get back on track after two straight tournament disappointments; but you know what? I’m tired of backing MSU and looking like an idiot. So back into the pool of overrated Big Ten teams you go. Until Tommy Izzo proves he still has the magic, I’m off the gravy wagon. (See watch, now that I called them out, here comes the miracle Spartan Elite Eight run…))

- The Providence in 95/Seton Hall in 97/ Saint John's in 2000/Syracuse in 2006 Rule- Pick a team that ONLY looked good in the Big East tournament, unless they are the dirty hillbillies of West Virginia.- Well, I predicted just such a scenario a week ago. Pitt, which looked so-so all season, then turned on the jets and won the BET. Was Pitt good all along and is this another WVA, or will Pitt crash and burn like Syracuse did? Time will tell.

(Note: You could add West Virginia and their new merry bunch of hillbillies to this category too, complete with their new little mini-Pittsnoggle, Joe Alexander. Personally, I’d rather jam a fork into my eye than think about another Mountaineers super-run, so I’ll forget about them for now.)

- The Rose-Colored Glasses Rule- Pick your alma mater to win several games. Trust me, your favorite team will ALWAYS make a deep run, especially if you pick them.

(I really don’t know what to make of Notre Dame right now. An AWESOME home team, ND can’t seem to get going on the road, especially if their 3-pt shooting is off. Half the country has Notre Dame as a sleeper, bandwagon pick; others have predict another early exit. Personally, I don’t which side of the fence I’m on…Ah, you know what, fuck that….Sweet 16, here we come….)

(As always, there is ONE exception to this rule. If your alma mater is in the tournament, and there’s a good chance they probably won’t be there again for another 20 years, by all means, pick away. I call this the Loyola-Maryland corollary. This year’s team: U. of Maryland-Baltimore County. Honorable Mention goes to Baylor.)

(One more note: I used to call this “the Siena Corollary”, but Siena has been in the tournament a lot recently. That, and I’ve developed a nice healthy hatred for upstate NY recently b/t the MAAC Tournament, Buffalo Sabres ridiculous fans, and the Elliot Spitzer thing. So Siena’s out. That reminds me:)

- The “Peeing over the side of Niagara Falls” rule- Pick teams for the state of New York to win.- Let’s see we’ve got Sienna, and Cornell, and...... wait, that’s FUCKING it? You’re kidding me right? What a disgrace. As always, I blame Mike Jarvis. Well, at least New Jersey got no one in.

Continuing my ‘state’ theme:

- The Bugsy Siegel rule- Pick teams from the states of Nevada and Utah to win their first games. - Hmmm….UNLV always seems to win its first round game. I wonder why? Hmmm….

- The Jane Krivickas- Illinois rule- Find out which STATE has the most schools from it in the tournament. Pick all those schools. A reader suggested this rule after she claimed to fill out her brackets using only schools located in Illinois. This year's winner: California, with UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Southern Cal, St. Marys, San Diego, Cal St-Fullerton, Cal St-Western School of Pork, The Academy of Awards, U. of Cal- by the Ocean, Bayside High, and the rest of the gang.

(Honorable mention this year goes to Indiana, with Purdue, IU, Butler, and Notre Dame, mostly because I say so.)

- The ‘Vegas casinos are built on the backs of suckers’ Rule- Find the popular upset picks, then run from them. A few popular upset picks this year: Sienna over Vanderbilt, Winthrop over Washington St, Western Kentucky over Drake, and….you know what, I refuse to list the last one because I don’t want to see it in print. You figure it out. Anyway, 95% of the people who will pick the lower seeds haven’t seen them play once this year. Why should you listen to them?

(Actually, why should you listen to me? What’s wrong with you? Have you seen my track record? I would have bet money on Gen. Custard if I had the chance.)

-The Pittsburg(h)* Rule- Pick with (insert team). Or against them. Or with them. Or against them. Throughout the years, I have learned that there are some teams just can’t be trusted, no matter how good or bad they are playing. Here are a few teams that will always give you headaches:

• Pittsburg: The new MVP of the list. The best Big East regular season and tournament team of the last few years…and hasn’t made it passed the Sweet 16, even when getting 2 & 3 seeds.

• Arizona: Lose when they should win; win when they should lose.

• Maryland: Never trust the Turtle. You’ll regret it!

• Texas: Can’t be trusted as a high seed.

• UConn: I’ve given up on trying to figure them out. Which is it fellas: are you a powerhouse up and comer, or do you just steal laptops? Pick one…

• Any team coached by Roy Williams: UNC is good, as always, but Roy’s teams do tend to choke when they don’t have 5 NBA-caliber players on them. See recent example: last year vs. Georgetown. Or to quote Roy: I don’t give a shit about North Carolina.

• Purdue: An oldie but a goodie. Anyone else remember backing Big Dog, then crashing and burning?

• Arkansas: Another oldie. Do they ever win tournament games anymore?

• Any team coached by Bobby Knight: Doesn’t apply this year.

• Indiana: *Formerly the Indiana rule, which shows you would bad things have gone for them recent. (First, they lose their lying cheating coach; then their rule in Maydog’s column. I’m sure they’re crying about it.) In my opinion, Indiana is the most completely unpredictable team in the tournament right now. They could either lose their first game by 50 pts, or go all the way to the finals; and frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Fucking cornboys…

• Gonzaga: I STILL have never picked a Zags games correctly.

•And, as always, two special teams that deserve their own rules this year:

- The Jayhawks Rule: Never pick Kansas. I think I picked Kansas to go to the Final Four every time they were a #1 seed until I finally wised up last year. Proceed with caution when building your brackets around Kansas. You’ve been warned…

And…

- The Posers Rule- Underestimate Duke. Or Don’t Underestimate Duke. Or Underestimate Duke. Which Coach K team will show up this year: the one that wins championships or the only that chokes against UConn, Kansas, Indiana, Michigan State, LSU, and VCU (List gets longer and longer every year)? I never have any idea. Actually, Duke reminds me of something:

- The Duke in ’99 rule-Be very, VERY careful when backing a one loss team A new rule. I’m probably picking Memphis this year, but I also picked the last two teams that entered the tournament with only one loss (St Joe’s in 2004, Duke in 1999). One loss/undefeated territory is rarified air. Just be careful not to suffocate. (Just ask the Patriots. HA!)

The “Gold star” rule- Long tournament drought=Short tournament run Baylor and Clemson just broke long tournament appearance droughts and may see that as enough of an accomplishment. Beware the letdown…

- The George Mason Rule: Always pick teams that ‘didn’t belong in the tournament’ to win their first round game. Lost in the big GM run of 2 years ago was the fact they didn’t deserve a bid in the first place. A little motivation can go a long way. This rule doesn’t really apply this year; the bubble was so crappy, you couldn’t really make a case that someone didn’t deserve to be in. There’s only been minimal discussion of Villanova or Baylor's inclusion anyway. In fact, the team that REALLY didn’t deserve to be in was Georgia, and they won their way in.

-The Haley’s Coment Rule: Try to find ‘the next George Mason.’ Note: I’m intentionally skipping writing about George Mason and Winthrop this year for karma reasons because they scare the crap out of me. Let’s just move on…Run with this one instead:

- The Valpo rule- Mid majors suck and never win. Kent St, Davidson. You have no chance to win and shouldn’t even try.

- The Pinky and All-Brainy Rule- Pick the Ivory League team to win. I do this every year just because Pete Carrill won those games in the mid 90’s, which I picked in my brackets. Go…wait it’s not Penn or Princeton this year, it’s Cornell! Oh the hell with that then… Just pick Stanford.

-The Austin P. rule - Pick a school whose chant it the ultra-cool “Let’s go P./Let’s go P." Self explanatory.

-The 16 years of Catholic School rule - Pick against the Mormons. Later BYU…

The Boston College Rule- Pick against teams you just don’t like. The key to picking correct brackets is to use your head as little as possible. All heart baby… Pick against Southern California because of football rivalries. Pick against Georgetown because you couldn’t get into school there. Pick against Villanova because Jay Wright makes you question your sexuality. Pick against Xavier because the letter ‘X’ confuses and disturbs you.

Wait, I got some more. Pick against Miami because you don’t tan well. Pick against Marquette because you’re lactose intolerant and hate dairy. Pick against Oregon because you hate yellow. Pick against Mississippi State because you can’t spell ‘Mississippi’. Pick against San Diego because you were once bitten by a seal. Pick against Kentucky because they suck (opps, sorry, that's a REAL reason not to pick Kentucky.) Try to find the most inane reason possible that has little to do with basketball, then pick accordingly…

-The Broken Compass rule- Never pick a school with a direction in its name. Western Kentucky, South Alabama. You suck (I have nothing more to add).

-The Oral Roberts rule- Make fun of Oral Roberts in the lamest way possible, like saying “hey, my dentist’s name is Oral Roberts, he he” and think you’re re-inventing comedy. Oh wait, sorry, that’s the EVERY OTHER lame ‘We’re trying to be funny with our picks’ column. I was just filling my quota…

-The St. Joe's in 2004 rule/Memphis in 2006-7 rule- ‘Bad’ Conference Champion=Elite Eight. I’ve been following this line of thinking for a few years now, ever since my St. Joe's Final Four pick in 2004. ‘Upper’ mid-major (Non-BCS: CUSA, A-10, Horizon league) champions that receive high seeds have most people picking against them making the Sweet Sixteen because it’s perceived that they came from a crappy conference. Teams like that ALWAYS surprise you. Consider picking Drake, Xavier, or Butler this year as a test run. (And yes, also consider lighting your money on fire while you’re at it.)

- The “Maydog Inflated Ego” Rule: Try to be a hero/ Duplicate past successes- For two years, between 2005-2006, MAYDOGMA gave you THE correct ridiculous upset pick of the first round, hitting with #14 Bucknell over #3 Kansas in 2005 (which was awesome), & then #13 Northwestern St. over #4 Iowa in 2006 (which was awful because I ignored my own stupid advice and bet money on Iowa). Last year, Miami of Ohio, which had played terribly except for one week, came within 2 points of knocking off Oregon and keeping my streak alive. You’d think I’d stop now that my streak is over, right? RIGHT!?? Of course not! So let’s try to figure out this year’s ridiculous upset pick:

Here are this year’s candidates, in order of elimination:

-Mississippi Valley St over UCLA (too insane)

- UMBC over Georgetown (I’d feel a little vindicated, but this outcome has no chance of happening)

-Cornell over Stanford (Nope)

-Oral Roberts over Pitt (Hmmmm......)

-Boise St. over Louisville (Double Hmmmm......)

-Western Kentucky over Drake (Not big enough upset)

-Winthrop over Washington St. (Also not big enough)

-Second runner up- Belmont over Duke (This can’t possibly happen, right?)

-The runner up- American over Tennessee (I really like Tennessee right now, but there are definitely a few Coppin State / South Carolina parallels going on here.)

And the winner of this year’s ridiculous Maydog upset pick is #14 Cal-State-Fullerton over #3 Wisconsin

I know absolutely nothing about CS-Ful. Nothing. Not even their nickname. You could ask me to guess players on their squad and I’d start with “Joe Smith.” Wisconsin is scorching hot and the only Big Ten team really worth a damn. This pick is beyond ridiculous and makes no sense. You know that that means…. (God, I’m such an idiot…)

So, after reading this column, you could follow my advice and be on your way to the poor house. OR… you could just go in this direction:

-Finally, the Dick Vitale Final Four Picks Rule- Never pick a lower seed to win. Upsets? There are never any upsets!!

Happy picking everyone.

The CBI? WTF?

2008-03-18T13:46:00.010-07:00

Where did this tournament come from?

http://gobearcats.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/cinn/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/cbi-bracket

I'm ripe with questions: Why would any self respecting school want to be in a 3rd tier tournament? (Well, that explains why Cincinatti's there.) What were the bare miminal requirements? Why didn't Loyola or St. John's get involved? And most importantly, can I gamble on this?

Of course, I can:

Round 1: Washington, Nevada, Virginia, ODU, Utah, Tulsa, Cincy, Ohio

Round 2: Nevada, ODU, Tulsa, Cincy

Semifinals: Nevada, Cincy

Finals: Cincy (Ha!)

Big East: Overrated? Well, Maybe a little

2008-03-18T09:46:00.004-07:00

I’ve made some comments about the Big East being overrated nationally this year. And while, yes, the conference was very deep and 8 teams ended up in the tournament despite beating up each other, the quality OOC victories for the BE this year are very sparse.

Here is a list of the Top Ten (imo) the Big East’s OOC Wins:

Pitt @ Duke
Marquette @ Wisc
UConn @ Indiana
ND over KSU (N)
Prov over Arkansas
LV @ Kentucky
Pitt @ Ok St
Cuse over St Joe’s
USF over FSU
Nova over LSU

I mean, look at that list. OK, the first two were big victories, the next 3 were solid wins over quality tournament teams, and the next one only gained prominence b/c Kentucky eventually turned its season around. But the rest? That was really the best I could come up with; seriously. You could make a case that some losing efforts (Marquette vs. Duke, WVA vs. Tenn., Upon vs. Memphis) were better that half the wins on this list. Note how 3 of the victories came from teams not in the tournament.

Also, note how many times Georgetown, the consensus ‘Best team in the BE’ and #2 seed, appears on the list. Um, ZERO. Can you name GT’s best OOC win this year? They don’t have one. Look in it up. American? William & Mary? Throw in a game where GT got killed (don’t let the final score fool you; GT was destroyed in this game and couldn’t keep up) and it’s safe to say that GT beat no one outside the BE all year. Is this a bad thing? Not neccessiary, but it doesn’t make them (or anyone else in the BE) look good. On Saturday, I was thinking GT might have an outside shot at a 1 seed; in retrospect, after reviewing their schedule, they would have been one of the worst 1 seeds of all-time.

So I’m not saying that the Big East CAN’T beat anyone nationally this year. It’s just that they haven’t, and for a conference with 8 tournament, that’s a bit of of a rarity. I hope it doesn’t bite them in the ass this week; and while I don’t think it will b/c of the talent of some of the teams, it’s not a stretch to say that they may be a touch overrated.

Maydog vs. Women's CBB (Don't worry, this will be brief)

2008-03-18T07:26:00.018-07:00

I don't care at all about the Women's championship and never really have. (Even when ND won the ONLY national championship of me 4 years there in 2001, I was kinda like 'Um, Ok that's cool; hey look, Wrestlemania's on.')

I could go on and on about the reasons why (the lack of fundimentals, the crowds, Geno Auriemma, the announcers, the GOD-AWFUL refs, Geno Auriemma), but do have one comment/conspriracy theory that is very evident in this year's bracket: Women's college basketball is fixed. You heard me: fixed. The whole sport is gears around fixing it so either UConn and Tennesee win it all every year. In fact, the woman's committee, when announcing the brackets, should just, "Ok, UConn's a 1 seed, Tennesee's a 1 seed; the rest of you, um, just decide among yourselves and let us know how it works out."

Case in point: Rutgers, a team everyone LOVES this year for karma reasons, is giving the worst draw possible and put them the same region as UConn when there is no way that were the worst 2 seed. Throw in about a THOUSAND shady calls in the last 10 years that SHOCKINGLY ALWAYS go for UConn or Tenn., and you're sitting there thiking "Hmmmm....maybe you're right, Maydog, and women's college b-ball IS more rigged than boxing."

Ok enough of that...

2008 NIT Picks

2008-03-18T07:10:00.011-07:00

A Maydogma Tradition continues....

http://www.nit.org/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/sports/m-nit/auto_pdf/031708-bracket

Here are my picks for this year's Not In Tournament:

1st Round: Ohio St, Cal, Dayton, Illinois St, Morgan St (think VA Tech wants to play this game?), VCU, Nebraska, Mississippi St., Arizona St (eh, I think they'll be motivated for a few days), South Illinois, Rhode Island, Florida (Ha!), Syracuse (they won their first game last year in front of the largest NIT crowd ever; so I'll be pissed if it doesn't happen this year), Maryland, Akron, UMass

2nd Round: Ohio St, Dayton, VCU, Mississippi St., Arizona St, Florida, Maryland, UMass

Semi-Finals: Ohio St, VCU, Florida, Maryland

Finals: Ohio St, Florida

Winner: Florida

(Note: I'm bucking the trend of picking against bubble teams and going with some big names. Plus, I think some NIT official might get an idea of "Hey, we could rig this thing so last year's championship finalist are in the NIT finals this year and steal 'headlines' for a few minutes." Plus, I could see the pissy Florida fans being happy about being undefeat in 3 straight post season and how that's the 'greatest thing to ever happen in basketball history' or some crap like that.)

Happy Picking...

BE Seed predictions

2008-03-15T21:45:00.000-07:00

Maydog’s Updated Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

As promised, my updated projected BE teams and seeds for the NCAA tournament:

Georgetown (2) (Pissed away their unexpected chance at 1 seed with finals loss)
Pitt (3) (Warned you about this one; I still wouldn't be shocked if they flip seeds with GT; Let the upset picks begin)
Louisville (4) (Could still be 3)
UConn (5) (Loss to WVA drops them one spot)
Marquette (5) (Did enough to move up a level)
Notre Dame (6) (Just a hunch; Let the outrage begin)
West Virginia (9) (Love to see second round vs Tennessee btw)

NIT: Villanova (I want to be wrong, but UNLV winning the autobid, and St Joe's NOT winning auto-bid may have been enough to end it. If Illinois or Georgia win Sunday, Nova is definately out) & Syracuse

A Verse of Maydogma: Middle of Big East Tournament Edition

2008-03-14T09:08:00.010-07:00

Tales 3 days before Selection Sunday

(Now with Reactionary Notre Dame Comments!)

Ok, I’ll try, TRY to get through this without any ridiculous Notre Dame/Mike Brey statements (like how maybe, JUST FUCKING MAYBE, it may have been worth abandoning the zone sooner than with 2 minutes left when it clearly wasn’t working and Marquette was shooting about 70% in the second half?!! Might that have been a good idea???....grrr...OK, I’ll stop...)

Hey, I think Georgetown just hit another 3...

Yeah, so that whole “picking UConn for the Elite eight” crap...You can go ahead and ignore that one, ok?

So, does anyone actually want to make the NCAA’s? Syracuse? St. Joe’s? UMass? UAB? Anybody? Maryland?

Speaking of the ACC, nothing warms my heart more than looking at their standings and seeing “BC: 4-12”…Still think it was worth it, fellows?…

In other ‘kicking you while you’re down’ news, nice no-show by Syracuse in the second half Wednesday. Somewhere, on that D-League trail, Gerry McNamara was crying in his Zima...

Well, here we go again with West Virginia. You know what that means? More fruit thrown at Maydog...

I have no evidence to prove it, but I think Seton Hall may have been the worst team to ever play in the BET.

I mean, come on: I was really pissed me off last year when all the idiots who hadn't seen ND play at all kept picking Winthrop based on a) the analysts' Winthrop love and b) the bias/hatred half the country has for ND. Throw in that there is now AMPLE evidence that they can't beat a good team in a big game away from South Bend. A win could have avoided all this. Now I get to hear this crap for the rest of the week. I mean, can you imagine if they're matched-up with George Mason? Or VCU? Or (gasp) Winthrop?

(Sorry, can’t help myself...I’ll let it go...)

Thanks a lot, Pitino...Someday I may actually predict the correct champion of this thing...Add Louisville to the ‘teams I just don’t fully trust’ entering next week, along with Tennessee, Kansas (as always), Southern Cal, Xavier, and, OF COURSE, Indiana...

OK, I know I’m biased, but Villanova probably should be in at this point…At least they WON a must-win game, unlike every other bubble team...

Congrats to the Big East Referees for earning a #1 seed in the “Worst Sports Officials Ever” Tournament. When I fill out my brackets, I definitely see them going far, but ultimately losing in the Final Four to fellow #1 seed “every NHL referee ever.”

BET on the Big East Tournament (Part 2)

2008-03-11T12:40:00.019-07:00

And now, the contenders. With one exception, I believe any of these 6 teams can win the BET, and, based on the school's overall quality resume, would get the last 2 seed that’s believed to be reserved for the BE Champion.

School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6

Playing for: Needs to ‘right the ship’ slightly after a bad loss to Syracuse; an automatic bid could sent their seed soaring

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 5-6 seed; could be 2-3 seed with a finals appearance

Chance of Winning First Game: 90%

Projected Finish: Lose to Notre Dame, Round 2 (gulp!)

Notes: The first of our title contenders appears. Marquette’s loss to Syracuse kinda killed the momentum that the Golden Eagles had built up the previous few weeks. Fortunately for them, they’re playing Seton Hall first, a perfect opponent for them to destroy and get that momentum back. Marquette is this year’s ‘dangerous’ lower seed in both the BET and the NCAA’s, as they’re talented and ready to take the next step. My head says they could really give ND a brutal game on Thursday (seeing as they beat ND earlier in the year by about 50 pts and didn’t miss a shot all game), so I’m picking with my heart and praying that Marquette doesn’t get a chance to be ‘over-seeded’ based on their win in Wisconsin.

School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 5

Playing for: Only losing to Providence will get cost them a bid; otherwise, not really playing for anything

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 7-10 seed, could be a 6 seed with a title

Chance of Winning First Game: 80%

Projected Finish: Loss to UConn, Round 2.

Notes: Kudos to the Mountaineers for not completely collapsing in what should have been a complete rebuilding year and getting hot at the end to steal the 5 seed from Marquette. WVA is solidly in the NCAA’s right now, but probably shouldn’t mess around with a loss to Providence. However, with the bubble as soft as it is, it would be really hard NOT to include 7 BE teams, so WVA could get in anyway. Their overall profile will make hard it for them to get above an 8-9 game though, so Bob Huggins’s team really will have little to play for after Wednesday.

School: Connecticut

BET Seed: 4

Playing for: Cap off a comeback year with a high seed (that would transform them from ‘sleeper’ to ‘contender’)

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 2 seed with the title, 3 seed with finals run, 4 seed otherwise.

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville, Finals.

Notes: I was on the “UConn is the best team in the Big East and a sleeper Final Four contender” bandwagon for a few months; then they went and inexplicably lose to Providence last week. So as someone planning on picking a long Huskies run, I’m a little frazzled right now (and disappointed, as a 4-5 seeded Connecticut team would have gotten much better odds). UConn (definitely a Top 10 team entering next year) is loaded with young talent right now, including a monster center that will cause all sorts of teams match-up problems in the NCAAs. As for the BET, Jim Calhoun (my pick for BE Coach of the Year) should have his players ready to play behind a largely pro-UConn crowd on Thursday, setting off a run to the finals.

School: Notre Dame

BET Seed: 3

Playing for: Trying to shed an unjust ‘home warrior’ label and win its way into a slightly higher seed.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 2-3 seed with a title; otherwise 4-5 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (gulp!)

Projected Finish: Lose to Louisville, Semi-Finals.

Notes: Sporting 2 All-Big East players, the Irish look to get a big win (or two) at MSG to solidify their status as a Top 4 seed and shed an unfair claim that they can’t win on the road. (FYI, 2008 BE Road Records: GT & LV: 6-3, UConn & ND: 5-4, so it’s not like everyone else was tearing it up away from home.) Unfortunately, the Irish got the hardest draw of all the top teams, starting with a good Marquette team (the only match-up of ranked teams before the semi-finals) and then a Louisville team that’s a bad match-up for the Irish. (Big centers have been Luke Harangody’s kryptonite all season.) (Plus, throw in the historic lack of success Notre Dame has had at MSG.) In particular, the Marquette game is a ‘nothing to gain, something to lose’ game for ND, as a loss may drop them behind Marquette and/or Pitt, while a win isn’t enough to push them past UConn just yet. And while a good showing vs. LV could raise their seed slightly, I belive only a title would get the Irish to the 3 line. Just winning the first game is enough for me; just keep Kyle McAlarney’s threes dropping and Marquette cold, and a run to the semis is possible.

School: Louisville

BET Seed: 2

Playing for: A Top Seed and the label of “Big East team most likely to go the Final Four”

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A finals run may clinch a 2 seed if things break right nationally.

Chance of Winning First Game: 75%

Projected Finish: Champion

Notes: Another team with a monster center that’s ready to wreck havoc. Louisville was scorching hot before losing some stream in a loss at Georgetown that cost them the regular season title. A rematch vs. GT in the finals could be enough to get BOTH teams 2 seeds if things break right nationally. I love how Louisville played this year (though I wish, as with everyone else in the BE, that they had a better OOC victory), and truly think Rick Pitno’s bunch is the class of the league right now. The Cardinals have the talent and the motivation to put together a good run this week to bring them the title and a 2 seed. Whether that will translate to success in the NCAA’s is another matter.

School: Georgetown

BET Seed: 1

Playing for: A 2 seed that would ensure an easier path back to the Final Four

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 3 seed no matter what, 2 seed with title. (And if you’re curious, would need about 8 teams to lose quickly to get 1 seed, no it ain’t happening.)

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%

Projected Finish: Loss to UConn, Semi-Finals.

Notes: Last year’s champion and the 2008 regular season winner, Georgetown looks to make one last run of the Hilbert-Green era before a transition year kicks in. However, while clearly one of the best teams in the BE, Georgetown has beaten NO ONE nationally this year and are something of a paper champion in my opinion. (More on that next week.) After the Hoyas end the tournament hopes of Villanova or Syracuse in Round 2, a semi-final match-up with UConn looms. And while GT is more experienced, they should be locked into a 3 seed by then and only looking to move up one slot. Is that enough to motivate GT, especially in what would essentially be a UConn home game on Friday night? I say no, so the Hoyas will take their 3 seed and rest up for another NCAA run.

So to recap:

Maydogma Predictions for 2008 BET

First Round
West Virginia over Providence
Marquette over Seton Hall
Pitt over Cincinnati
Villanova over Syracuse

Second Round
Georgetown over Villanova
Louisville over Pitt
Notre Dame over Marquette
UConn over West Virginia

Semi-Finals
UConn over Georgetown
Louisville over Notre Dame

Finals
Louisville over UConn

Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the actual tournament plays out.)

Georgetown (3)
Louisville (2)
Notre Dame (5)
UConn (4)
Pitt (7)
Marquette (5)
West Virginia (10)

NIT: Syracuse, Villanova

BET on the Big East Tournament (Part 1)

2008-03-10T12:20:00.003-07:00

A quick preview of this week’s Big East Tournament:

Top to bottom, the Big East was a much better and deeper conference this year than in 2007. Going into the conference championship tournament, 6 teams have sewed up an NCAA tournament bid, 1 is a virtual lock, 2 more will be playing each other for a bid (maybe) on Wednesday, and the other 3 teams are unpredictable underdogs.

Some of this depth can be attributed to the talent influx of the last few years (Teams like Louisville and Connecticut should be competing for #1 seeds next year, while Syracuse and Villanova are young enough to be contenders soon.).

Of course, this year also probably sports the weakest group of national bubble teams ever. (And, as much as it pains me, I believe the Big East is a little overrated nationally this year. But we’ll get to that next week.)

The top teams have little left to play for this week (other than slight seeding changes), opening up the possibility of a deep run by an underdog to grab the automatic bid. Despite not having a true live underdog this year, no one would be shocked by:

1) A terrible regular season team like Seton Hall or Cincinnati finally snapping out of a season long funk
2) A talented middling team like Villanova, Syracuse, or West Virginia copying Syracuse’s 2006 run off the bubble and into a 5 seed
3) A high seeded team like UConn, Pitt, Marquette or Notre Dame getting a good draw and catching fire
4) An upper echelon team like Georgetown or Louisville putting themselves on the map nationally with a dominating performance.

Of course, seeding-wise, the committee ALWAYS “over-ranks” the BE champion; all of the Top 6 teams would most likely receive a #2 seed with a deep run at MSG this week, with everyone else looking an undeserving-ly high #5-6 seed for one good week of work. So as usual, when filling out your brackets next , beware the hot Big East team that only looks good in the BET.

Today, I’ll analyze the bottom 6 seeds’ chances (including NCAA implications), followed tomorrow by the Top 6 and full predictions.

School: Providence

BET Seed: 12

Playing for: Trying to save Tim Welsh's job, b/c even an NIT bid is a bit of a long shot

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed, need to win BET for bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 20%

Projected Finish: Loss to West Virgina, Round 1.

Notes: Welsh's job security is at an all-time low, even though their win over UConn last week allowed the Friars to sneak into the BET. Still 50-50 he gets fired. Only a run to the finals will get the Friars a postseason bid of any kind. With that said, Providence has been playing better lately and an upset over West Virginia isn't entirely out of the question.

School: Seton Hall
BET Seed: 11

Playing for: Pride, I guess.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 10%

Projected Finish: Lost to Marquette, Round 1.

Notes: IMO, the worst team in this year’s field. After a decent start to the year, Seton Hall collapsed in conference play and probably needs two wins to get to the NIT. I really have nothing else to add here, because from the few times I watched them, the Pirates have really been pretty awful (including Sunday’s terrible collapse vs. Rutgers) and should get plastered on Wednesday by a good Marquette team that’s looking to ‘right’ the ship.

School: Cincinnati
BET Seed: 10

Playing for: The right to be the first BE team in forever to make NCAA’s with a non-winning record.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 10-12 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 25%

Projected Finish: Lose to Pitt, Round 1.

Notes: What a crazy year for the Bearcats: A TERRIBLE overall record but a decent BE year (all things considered) that would have been better sans that late 5-game losing streak and the embarrassing loss to UConn Sunday. This team is IMPOSSIBLE to figure out right now, so I'll just assume that they lose by 70 to Pitt.

School: Syracuse
BET Seed: 9

Playing for: The definition of a bubble team; needs to impress the committee this week

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 8-10 seed; 5 seed if they win tourney

Chance of Winning First Game: 49%

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova, Round 1

Notes: After getting screwed by the committee last year, due mostly to a poor SOS, the Orange boast the #8 SOS (somehow; seriously, what good OOC team have they played anyway?). With the bubble being as soft as it is, one win over ‘Nova may be enough to get them in as the BE's 8th team. In addition, an upset over Georgetown could then send their seed soaring ala 2 years ago. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves…

School: Villanova
BET Seed: 8

Playing for: Needs to win first game to become a bubble team; then needs to play its way into the tournament.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed; 5 seed if they win tourney

Chance of Winning First Game: 51%

Projected Finish: Loss to Georgetown, Round 2

Notes: Unlike Syracuse, A young Villanova team is currently NOT a bubble team until they beat Syracuse. (They’d already be a lock right now is not for some bad luck and fishy calls earlier in the season.) The Cuse-Nova game is the pivotal first round game of the BET tournament, and a de facto elimination game, deciding if the conference has a chance at getting an extra team into the Big Dance. With both teams pretty evenly matched (and sporting similar uninspiring resumes), I believe the winner STILL will need to upset Georgetown in round 2 to get in.. For me, the game is too close to call (I think Syracuse is a little better/hotter right now coming off that win over Marquette, but Villanova is slightly more talented), so I’ll do a semi-homer pick and pick the Wildcats to win, then fail at avenging their screw-job loss to Georgetown in Round 2.

School: Pittsburg
BET Seed: 7

Playing for: This year’s “They could have been better without injuries, but I still think they underachieved” team; needs to win first round game just to be safe (and even if they lose, they’re probably still in)

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed; 5 seed if they win tourney; higher if the committee decides to go insane

Chance of Winning First Game: 75%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville, Round 2.

Notes: The Panthers are looking to return to the finals for the 3rd straight year, as Pitt has been the best and most consistent BET team of the last decade. Despite only a 10-8 conference record, a December win over Duke is keeping Pitt as a lock right now. Not exactly ‘playing with fire’ if they lose to Cincinnati, but it’s not something they want to be doing. A terrible match-up for them awaits in Round 2 vs. Louisville, so while a deep run remains a possibility, I don’t see it. With that said, if Pitt goes far and shockingly gets a #3 seed based solely on that Duke win, I can’t wait to pick against them.

Tomorrow: The Top 6 and full seeding predictions

College B-Ball Time Again

2008-03-10T08:48:00.001-07:00

Stay tuned for my Big tournament preview today and tomorrow, plus lots of college basketball post in time for tournament time this week

Maydog vs. March Madness: Version 5

2007-03-14T11:32:00.000-07:00

Since the creation of MAYDOGMA five (!) years ago, the only constant has been my annual NCAA column. Writers have come and gone, nations have crumpled, universes have collided…and what still remains is my NCAA column. And hey, my grammar improves with each passing year…

Sure, my fan base is down to maybe 10 people (8 relatives/friends and 2 religious nuts who think I’m some sort of deity). And I’ve made no money from writing. And there’s a good chance that this blog will get less hits this week than some freaky animal porn website where some dudes bang a pig while eating strips of bacon.
Despite all that, I just enjoy writing about the NCAA Tournament every year while getting people to mess up their pools. In 10 years, long after the website’s hosting fees have caused me to file for bankruptcy, I hope to still be writing my NCAA column while intelligent robots enslave the human race, as foretold in so many movies.

This year, as an added challenge, I will try to include ALL 65 tournament teams at least once. That way, I will have talked you out of every team in the field (and even contradicted myself several times). Am I up to this challenge? Of course not; I’ve haven’t posted anything in almost a year. If you seriously follow my advice, well, I got some property in Iraq that I’d like to sell ya…

So, sit back, and enjoy, as MAYDOGMA proudly presents Maydog’s 5th annual guide on “How to lose your office pool as fast as humanly possibly.”

-The Kentucky Rule- Pick the #1 team in the country to win it all. Hey, they’re the best team in the country. The best team ALWAYS wins. Go Florida…

(Wow…I can’t believe I’m going to actually pick Florida to win a few games this year. I don’t think I’ve picked the Gators to win a game in like 5 years. Which may explain my recent lack of success. In fact, I’m gonna spent the rest of the column looking for a GOOD reason not to take Florida…)
(That said, don’t automatically put Florida over Arizona or Maryland, especially given the conference Florida came from. In fact...)

- The Big Ten Rule- Develop a biased opinion against one specific conference. Talk yourself into calling all their teams ‘overrated.’ This year’s conference: The SEC. Other than Florida, none of the SEC’s teams have really impressed me, as evidenced by the next highest ranking being a #5 seed for Tennessee & a #6 seed for Vandy. Kentucky had a ‘so-so’ year. Then Arkansas weaseled its way into the tournament. The SEC was down this year, so I’m using this biased opinion to pick against the SEC.

(Please note: As usual, I DESPERATELY tried to squeeze the Big Ten into the annual “Big Ten Overrated” Spot. But things have changed this year with a new rule…)

- The Jenna Jameson “I’ve been screwed too many times” Big Ten Rule- Never, NEVER, NEVER (!!!!!!) pick a Big Ten team not named Michigan State to win a single game. Last year, I declared my brackets the “Year of the Big Ten” and watched in horror as almost all their teams lost in the first and second round. Fucking Big Ten. So please, proceed with caution when picking either Wisconsin or Ohio St. for the Final Four.
(Note: Michigan State only gets a pass because I’m willing to call last year vs. George Mason a fluke. I still contend that if Texas fielded a starting 5 of Kevin Durante, Lebron James, Moses, James Naismith, and some sort of supernatural wizard, Tom Izzo would still find a way to get past them to the Elite Eight. Now if only I had the guts to pick it this year…)

-The Dick Vitale Final Four Picks Rule- Never pick a lower seed to win. Upsets? There are never any upsets!!

- The Providence in 95/Seton Hall in 97/ Saint John's in 2000/Syracuse in 2006 Rule- Pick a team that ONLY looked good in the Big East tourney, unless they are the dirty hillbillies of West Virginia.- No West Virginia this year, so this rule really doesn’t apply; all the Big East teams that looked good in the Big East tournament looked good during the regular season. That said, I was fully prepared to pick against Louisville last week, so always be weary of the ‘hot’ Big East team.

- The Rose-Colored Glasses Rule- Pick your alma mater to win several games. Trust me, your favorite team ALWAYS makes a run, especially if you pick them.

(After three long years, Notre Dame returns to the NCAAs. Congrats to Coach Brey on proving me wrong this year. And, of course, ND gets to face the fashionable Cinderella-upset-pick-team-that-everyone-called-a-Cinderella-upset-pick-team-three-months-ago Winthrop, thus ensuring 80% of the country picks against ND. Whatever; I’m picking the Irish for the Sweet 16…How’s THAT for a homer pick?)

(As always, there is ONE exception to this rule. If your alma mater is in the tournament, and there’s a good chance they probably won’t be there again for another 20 years, by all means, pick them. I call this the Siena corollary. This year’s team: North Texas.)

- The 'Hey, It could happen' rule- Pick a 16 seed to win.- Florida A&M is a juicy pick right now…Niagara is giving me a warm feeling…Jackson St. is really frisky…Central Connecticut State is screaming “Pick me”… Let me know how this one works out for you guys….Speaking of upsets…

- The ‘Vegas casinos are built on the backs of suckers’ Rule- Find the popular upset picks, then run from them. Two popular upset picks this year: Albany over Virginia, and Oral Roberts over Washington St. Yet 95% of the people who will pick Oral Roberts and Albany haven’t seen them play once this year. Just saying…

-The Indiana Rule- Pick with (insert team). Or against them. Or with them. Or against them. Throughout the years, I have learned that there are some teams just can’t be trusted, no matter how good or bad they are playing. Here are a few teams that will always give you headaches:

• Arizona: Lose when they should win. Win when they should lose. (This year is another great test run. The Wildcats have been up and down all year, and are an 8th seed, which usually mean they’ll win a game or two. If they had been a #2 seed, I’d have picked them for the Final Four, and then watch ‘Zona lose to Bumblefuck State U. in Round 1. )

• Syracuse: Doesn’t apply this year b/c they got screwed. But I really hope Gerry McNamara is enjoy the D-League, I really do.

• Pittsburg: Fast becoming the MVP of this list. Pitt ALWAYS loses in the second round as a high seed. And Wright State just beat Butler too…I’m weary of the Panthers.

• Maryland: Never trust the Turtle. You’ll regret it! Believe me, I was thinking of picking Maryland in the Final Four this year before I remembered all my old Maryland scars…

• Georgia Tech: New one. Is it just me, or does GT always either lose their first game, or go to the finals?

• Any team coached by Roy Williams: I like UNC this year, but Roy’s teams do tend to choke when they don’t have 5 NBA-caliber players on them. Or to quote Roy: I don’t give a shit about North Carolina.

• Any team coached by Bobby Knight: Texas Tech could win 30 straight games and I’d still be nervous because of all the office pool damage Coach Knight caused me in the ‘90’s.

• Indiana: Fucking corn boys…Don’t get me started on that 2002 run…

• Gonzaga: I have NEVER picked a Zags games correctly.

(Holy Crap, I just realized that Indiana is PLAYING Gonzaga in the first round! How the hell did THAT happen? This is like the all time bad karma game. I HAVE to pick one of them?

•And two special teams that deserve their own rules this year:

- The Jayhawks Rule: Never pick Kansas. I think I’ve picked Kansas to go to the Final Four 4 of the last 5 years and they always screw me over. You’ve been warned…

And…

- The Posers Rule- Underestimate Duke. Or Don’t Underestimate Duke. Or Underestimate Duke. Which Coach K team will show up this year: the one that wins championships or the only that chokes against UConn, Kansas, Indiana, Michigan State, & LSU (List keeps getting longer and longer every year?)? I never have any idea. That being said:

- The Moron Rule- Pick Duke to lose in the first round. Look, I hate Duke as much as everyone else. But you’re a complete moron if you’re picking VCU to beat Coach K in the first round. Duke has lost a first round game ONCE in the last 25 years, plus only 4 SECOND ROUND games in that timeframe. This year’s Duke team is not great, but I’m not messing with a streak like that. You can be brave for me…

- The Bugsy Siegel rule- Pick teams from the states of Nevada and Utah to win their first games. - Look, I don’t know if it’s just a coincidence (wink-wink), but I always pick UNLV, Utah, or Nevada to win their first game, and they always seem to come through. Not that I’m accusing anyone of anything. Seriously, it’s all just a coincidence all these teams are near Las Vegas, correct? Please don’t break my legs or anything…

- The Jane Krivickas- Illinois rule- Find out which STATE has the most teams from it in the tournament. Pick all those schools. A reader suggested this rule after she claimed to fill out her brackets using only schools located in Illinois. This year's state: Texas; with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, North Texas, Texas A&M CC, Texas West-Eastern North School Culinary Arts, Norteastern Middle Texas University for Puppeteers, Texas Midwest Southern ABC of D East, and the rest of the gang.

- The George Mason Rule- Always pick teams that ‘didn’t belong in the tournament’ to win their first round game. Look, we all know that Stanford, Illinois, Purdue, & Arkansas are crappy teams that probably didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. But guess what? Those teams are gonna hear all week that they don’t deserve to be in the tournament, which will motivate the hell out of them. Just look at George Mason last year: Lost in the big GM run is the fact they didn’t deserve a bid in the first place. A little motivation can go a long way…Speaking of George Mason:

-The Haley’s Coment Rule- Try to find ‘the next George Mason.’ Guess what folks? Final Four runs by low mid-majors come along once a lifetime. All the experts are falling over themselves to crown ‘the next George Mason.’ Guess what? It’s not gonna happen every year. So stop shoving Creighton, Davidson, Old Dominion, VCU, and especially Winthrop (yes, I know, I’m biased) down our throats as title contenders. That said:

- The Valpo rule- Mid majors suck and never win. HA!

-The UCLA in 96 / Joe Feehan in 2001 Rule- Overrate the defending champion. Again, after years of picking against Florida, I find it physically impossible to pick the Gators, almost like rejecting a bad heart transplant. So I’m ignoring the ‘overrate the defending champion’ rule this year, despite 2007 being the one year when it actually makes sense to pick the defending champion…Dear god, what the hell am I thinking?

- The Pinky and All-Brainy Rule- Pick the Ivory League team to win. I think I do this every year for no reason whatsoever. (Well, mostly because Pete Carrill won those games in the mid 90’s, which I picked in my brackets.) Go Penn!

-The 16 years of Catholic School rule- Never pick a school with the word “State” in its name. Public school is overrated…New Mexico State & Long Beach State: You’re on notice…

-The 16 years of Catholic School rule (Part II)- Pick against the Mormons. Later BYU…

The Boston College Rule- Pick against teams you just don’t like. The key to picking correct brackets is to use your head as little as possible. All heart baby… Pick against USC because of football rivalries. Pick against BC because they tried to wreck the Big East. Pick against Georgetown because you couldn’t get into school there. Pick against George Washington because your great, great grandfather was a Redcoat. Pick against Villanova because Jay Wright makes you question your sexuality. Pick against Xavier because the letter ‘X’ confuses and disturbs you. Pick against Virginia Tech because a rich engineer had sex with your wife. Pick against Marquette because you hate dairy. Try to find the most inane reason that has as little to do with basketball as possible, then pick accordingly…

-The Broken Compass rule- Never pick a school with a direction in its name. Eastern Kentucky, my ass…

-The St. Joe's in 2004 rule/Memphis in 2006 rule- ‘Bad’ Conference Champion=Elite Eight. I’ve been following this line of thinking for a few years now, ever since my St. Joe's Final Four pick in 2004 (which was about 10 seconds away from being inspired). ‘Upper’ mid-major (Non-BCS: CUSA, A-10, Horizon league, maybe the MVC at this point) champions that receive high seeds (like #2 Memphis this year) have most people picking against them making the Sweet Sixteen. Teams like that ALWAYS surprise you. Considering picking Butler and Memphis this year as a test run. (And yes, also consider flushing your money down the toilet while you’re at it.)

-The Otto the Syracuse Orange Rule- Pick the school with the better mascot. If you follow this one, Syracuse would win every year, with Florida as the runner-up…Crap, more reason to pick Florida…

-The Matt Doherty Rule- Pick coaches from your hometown. Long Island is known as the “cradle of coaches,” having produced several top level coaches (Rick Pitino, Jay Wright, Billy Donovan). Should this information sway my decision come tournament time? Damn straight it should. Go Louisville…

- Finally, The “Maydog Inflated Ego” Rule: Try to be a hero/ Duplicate past successes- For two years running, this websitre has given you THE upset pick of the first round, hitting with #14 Bucknell over #3 Kansas in 2005 (which was awesome) & #13 Northwestern St. over #5 Iowa in 2006 (which was awful because I ignored my own stupid advice and bet money on Iowa). With this streak of incredible good luck, you’d think I’d quit while I’m ‘ahead.’ Right? RIGHT!?? Of course not! So let’s try to figure out this year’s gigantic upset pick that no one else sees coming.

Here were this year’s choices, in order of elimination:
-New Mexico State over Texas (too insane)
-Belmont over Georgetown (ditto)
-North Texas over Memphis (kinda like Memphis this year)
-Penn over Texas A&M (no chance)
-Oral Roberts over Washington (too many people picking this one)
-Holy Cross over Southern Illnois (not big enough upset)

-The runner up-Weber St over UCLA (Came DANGEROUSLY close to this one, but can UCLA really lose 3 in a row?)

And the winner of this year’s ridiculous Maydog pick: #14 Miami (OH) over #3 Oregon.

Miami (OH) played maybe TWO good games all season; Oregon was scorching hot at the beginning of the year and will basically be playing a home game Friday. But I’m trying to be a hero here and top myself. This would truly be my greatest pick ever, so let’s how this works out…God, I’m such an idiot…

And while that shocking bit of insanity, let’s get those pencils rolling…

Happy picking everyone.

Comments and Plug

2007-03-14T09:43:00.000-07:00

Holy Crap, a comment:

Thought you might like to know my mother sited your blog as one her places to go in order to help her make her bracket choices. She refered to you as a "sports authority" but did mention you had it wrong with the Orangemen. -Jane

Wow...I've never been called an authority on anything. I'm honored

And while I'm here, I need to plug the ND Basketball Blog, who had plugged my BE article last. Black&green (whose real name I don't know) does a real good job breaking down Notre Dame Basketball.

http://ndbasketball.blogspot.com

Coming later today: My 5th Annual March Madness column

Disrespect...Damn I hate being like that

2007-03-13T11:42:00.000-07:00

You know, it's just starting to dawn on me how pissed off I am at this Winthrop phenomenon. Didn't everyone SEE Notre Dame play on Friday vs. Georgetown? You're telling me EVERYONE is just picking against Notre Dame because "I really like Winthrop" & "the Next George Mason" crap...Please...This is typical ND Haters bullshit...Throw in the ridiculously low point spread (ND was -2.5 this morning) and I'm really starting to build up a nice hatred of the Eagles...Friday's game is for blood...

2007 NIT Picks

2007-03-13T06:40:00.000-07:00

I give you my NIT picks, which I've been doing for the third straight for my own pervese reasons. You may remember last year when I picked U. of South Carolina to win the whole thing and they actually won. That pick probably rates as a Top 5 gambling moment for me, which is depressing on so many levels.

This also marks the first time in 3 years that Notre Dame is NOT in the NIT, thus ensuing I won't watch a single game of the NIT...And frankly, I couldn't be happier...

This year's field is FILLED with teams that felt they deserved to make the Big Tournament, and those teams are never motivated enough to win, so the picks are wildly unpredictable. So that was my strategy again: Pick against 'bubble teams' and pick for teams that might actually enjoy winnning the NIT.

http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/sports/m-nit/auto_pdf/2007-Bracket

The picks:

First Round: Miss St, Bradley, Michigan, Floroda St., West Virginia, Alabama, Drexel, Oklahoma State, Austin Peay (AF could care less), Georgia, Depaul (Hofstra was so unmotivated this year), Vermont (Ditto Bob Huggins), Clemson, Ole Miss, Missouri St, South Alabama (Do you really think Syracuse even wants to play this game?)

Second Round: Miss St, Michigan, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Depaul, Ole Miss, Missouri St

Final Four: Michigan (Go for you Michigan, back-to-back Final Fours, get excited :)), Oklahoma State, Depaul, Missouri St

Finals: Oklahoma State, Depaul-winner

Yay...Content

2007-03-12T19:08:00.000-07:00

Well, everyone's complaining about the selection committee, which happens everything. Normally, I'd call this 'complaining for complaining's sake.' I mean, everyone has gripes EVERY SINGLE YEAR. If Drexel and Kansas State had made it instead of Purdue and Illinois, the analyst would probably be going "3 teams from the CAA? Ridiculous!" or "K State didn't deserve it over Purdue." The 'experts' need to talk about something for 3 days before the tournament starts.

That said, the fact Syracuse didn't make it is an absolute disgrace. I've been racking my brain trying to pinpoint the exact reason, and frankly I can't find it.

Oh and Go Notre Dame...

Big East NCAA Bid and Seeding

2007-03-10T21:01:00.000-08:00

As promised, a quick update on where I think all the Big East teams will be Seeded by the NCAA Tournament Committee:

Georgetown- #2 seed
Pittsburg- #3 seed
Louisville- #4 seed
Notre Dame- #5 seed
Marquette- #5 seed
Villanova- #7 seed
Syracuse- #9 seed
West Virginia- #11 seed

NIT- Depaul, Providence (and that's it, call it a hunch)

Beast from the Big East- Part 2

2007-03-06T13:16:00.000-08:00

Continuing with yesterday’s post previewing the Big East Tournament…

One comment on yesterday’s post: My brother called me out on UConn’s NCAA seeding if they won the BET, claiming that there is no way UConn would be a low seed (11-12) based on reputation alone. And after thinking about it, I’m inclined to agree. Like it or not, there are some programs who, at this point, are ‘immune’ to the lower seeds, no matter how bad it’s regular season was. Just like there is no way that automatic bid, sub-par Duke team would ever be a 10 seed, there is no way Connecticut would ever be a 12 seed. The most recent example I could think of was when North Carolina was an 8 (9?) seed in 1999 with an 18-12 record.

So I stand corrected: If Jim Calhoun wins the Big East’s automatic bid, UConn will be at least a 9 seed. I hope that comforts them when they get plastered tomorrow…

Onto the Top Seeds:

School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6

Playing for: Chance to be a Protected Seed, ‘home games’ in Chicago in first two rounds

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #4 seed with a title, #5 in Finals, #6-7 otherwise, #8-9 with an awful loss to depleted SJU.

Chance of Winning First Game: 99.9999999% (Percentage Updated based on the news of Hamilton’s injury.)

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in semifinals round.

Notes: The Golden Eagles, after a big started, ‘collapsed’ late and cost themselves a bye. Fortunately, SJU beat Providence Sunday to give Marquette a bye anyway. Marquette is playing for seeding now, and could become a top 16 team with the trip to the Finals. An upset of Pitt in round 2 would be a huge start to that goal.

School: Syracuse
BET Seed: 5

Playing for: Beating UConn should, SHOULD get them into the NCAAs; a loss makes it dicey.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Deep Run= #6 seed, Probably in the 7-9 range otherwise

Chance of Winning First Game: 60%

Projected Finish: Loss to Notre Dame in 2nd round. (Gulp.)

Notes: A ho-hum out of conference schedule with no signature wins means Syracuse needs to beat UConn to feel safe. A loss and they will be nervous up until the last minute Sunday. Personally, I think this team is awful and got 10 win this year with smoke and mirrors, but WAY too many people think UConn’s winning tomorrow. (Of course, I thought the same thing about them LAST year, so I fully prepared for anything.) Syracuse should be able to stay in the BET long enough to get a bid to the Big Dance. Rooting against WVA would also help.

School: Notre Dame
BET Seed: 4

Playing for: Cap off an exciting comeback year with a Top 8 seed.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Could be anything from a #5 seed to a #8 seed.

Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (Early prediction: The gambling line for Thursday’s game vs. UConn/Syracuse will be ridiculously low.)

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in Semi-Finals.

Notes: No team will be more rested than the Irish going into Thursday’s game, having only played 1 game in the last 10 days. Notre Dame is pretty much locked into it’s seeding range; even a BE title is unlikely to get them a #4 seed. Wining the first game is enough for me to be happy. (One wildcard: Notre Dame always, ALWAYS plays awful at MSG, no matter who the opponent. And the Irish will be the ‘visiting team’ vs. either opponent on Thursday. So beware…)

School: Pittsburg
BET Seed: 3

Playing for: Need to right the ship after some late season losses dropped them behind Georgetown.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #3 seed for getting to finals, #4 seed otherwise.

Chance of Winning First Game: 45%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round.

Notes: Pittsburg went from title contender/#1 seed to ‘another decent team’ in a matter of weeks. Personally, I think Pitt is the one of the most overrated programs in the last few years (always ranked high, they never win in the tournament), so seeing them on as a #3-4 seed instead of a #2 seed will only help come gambling pool time. I never trust Pitt to win games they’re supposed to, so I’ll take a hot Louisville team to upset them on Thursday.

School: Louisville
BET Seed: 2

Playing for: the right to be over-seeded by the committee.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A title should make the Cardinals a #3 seed; Otherwise, will be a #4 seed.

Chance of Winning First Game: 65%

Projected Finish: Big East Title.

Notes: Led by my pick for BE Coach of the Year (Rick Pitino), Louisville is the hottest team heading into New York, having won six in a row and stealing the #2 seed from Pitt. I’m predicting Pitino takes his overachievers to the Big East automatic bid, a shocking #3 NCAA seed….and a first round exit at the hands of some midmajor upstart, continuing the ‘overseeding curse.’

School: Georgetown
BET Seed: 1

Playing for: an outside chance at a #1 seed if other national contenders fall

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: One win guarantees a 2 seed (in my opinion)

Chance of Winning First Game: 50%

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in second round.

Notes: Clearly the class of the league this year, and barring any huge National upset, Georgetown is basically playing to move up from a #3 seed to a #2 seed. Is that enough to motivate the Hoyas? I don’t think so…That said, an extra week off could really help Georgetown prepare for a Final Four run. So losing Thursday may be a ‘good’ thing.

So to recap:

Maydogma Predictions for BET

First Round
Syracuse over UConn
Villanova over Depaul
Marquette over SJU
WVA over Providence

Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA

Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA

Semi-Finals
Villanova over Notre Dame
Louisville over Marquette

Finals
Louisville over Villanova

Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the tournament plays out.)

Pitt (4)
Georgetown (3)
Louisville (3)
Notre Dame (6)
Marquette (5)
Villanova (5)
Syracuse (7)
West Virginia (11)

Beast from the Big East- Part 1

2007-03-05T14:37:00.000-08:00

Seeing as it’s my favorite conference tournament, I figured I’d give quick previews & predictions for the Big East tournament and what each team is playing for this week.

This year has been a so-so year for the Big East, especially following last year’s ‘first year of the expansion, two #1 seeds’ regular season. This was expected to be a rebuilding year considering the massive talent exoduses at both UConn and Villanova (and to lesser degrees, Syracuse and West Virginia.) While the top 5-7 are all solid, every team has some glaring flaws and, with the exception of Georgetown, no one looks primed for a massive run to the Final Four this year. It is just as liekly that 4-5 teams will lose in the first round to an upstart midmajor as there is of 4-5 teams making the Sweet 16. Predicting this year’s tournament is harder than ever, especially with ‘live’ lower seeds in Villanova (#9), Providence (#10), and even UConn (#12).

Keep in mind that each team is playing for a wide range of NCAA seeds this year, and the winner of the BET is always, ALWAYS ‘over-seeded’ by the committee based on their tournament win. Look no further than last year’s Syracuse team, who went from a bubble team to NCAA 5-seed overnight.

Plus, beware teams that catch fire just for the BET. With one notable exception (WVA in 2005), Teams that only look good in the Big East Tournament usually crap out quickly in the Big Dance (Providence in ‘95, Seton Hall in ’97, Saint John’s in ’01, Syracuse in ’06.)

Today, I’ll start with the bottom 6 seed, followed tomorrow by the Top 6 and full predictions.

School: Connecticut
BET Seed: 12

Playing for: ‘Super-sleeper’ pick to win tournament; most likely a home game in the NIT

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-12 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 40%

Projected Finish: Loss to Syracuse.

Notes: I guess UConn deserves to have a rebuilding year every now and then (of course, it comes the one year they don’t play Notre Dame). That said, WAY too many people are picking UConn to beat Syracuse Wednesday, which is a huge red flag to me. Enjoy the NIT; it’s about time.

School: Saint Johns
BET Seed: 11

Playing for: Just happy to be back in the BET, which a disgrace. Good job, Uncle Phil; Home game in the NIT

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 2% (and even this seems high)

Projected Finish: Loss to Maquette.

Notes: Having already ‘clinched’ an NIT with their win over Providence, SJU has little left to play for and it pretty much overmatched vs. Marquette (terrible match-up for them). Keeping it close in front of the home crowd at MSG would be a nice accomplishment.

School: Providence
BET Seed: 10

Playing for: Kinda/Sorta a bubble team, needs at least two wins to even little about an NCAA bid and even that probably isn’t enough.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 10-12 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 50%

Projected Finish: Loss to WVA.

Notes: One player of the year candidate, plus maybe a decent pro-Friar crowd Wednesday night (most of whom will be there for Saint Johns) could help Providence win one game. But second round vs. hot Louisville should send Friars to the NIT.

School: Villanova
BET Seed: 9

Playing for: A chance to be over-seeded in the NCAA’s.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Winning BET could vault Nova to a 5 seed, winning 1-2 games probably put them in the 6-9 range.

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%
Projected Finish: Loss in Finals to Louisville.

Notes: I guess this kinda gives away where I’m going with my predictions. Villanova is a sleeping giant that could, COULD catch fire this week and be this year’s Syracuse, with great out of conference numbers and that win over Texas. The draw they got (Depaul, then Georgetown with little to play for (who they also beat)) helps a lot.

School: Depaul
BET Seed: 8

Playing for: Another fringe NCAA bubble team; at least two wins are needed to make a case.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 8-10 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 30% (and even this seems high)

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova.

Notes: Could two wins by DePaul get them in the tournament, especially with that early season victory over Kansas? I say yes, depending on how WVA, Syracuse, & other bubble teams fare. That said, I think they got a bad matchup with Villanova, so it looks like an NIT bid (with a decent chance of winning the NIT actually) is in the cards

School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 7

Playing for: Firmly on the bubble, with a win over UCLA the only thing keeping them in the discussion.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed, winning tournament could make them a 7 seed on reputation.

Chance of Winning First Game: 50%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round..

Notes: A rebuilding year for the Mountaineers after their big run two years ago (of which I hated every minute, and screwed me out of money at every turn. God, I hate these hicks. I hate them. Thanks for throwing fruit at me, you jerks. Please lose. No one likes you expect the gap-toothed freaks wearing their Pittsnoggle jerseys and…hey now, am I typing still? Thought I was just thinking that…Um, ok, back to being objective…). That first round game vs. Providence basically an NCAA elimination game, so, begrudgingly, I’ll assume that WVA gets off the bubble with a win.

Tomorrow: The top 6, and full predictions

That time of year...

2007-03-02T08:40:00.000-08:00

Where I return to write about the NCAA tournament and tease a comeback.

Stay tuned for new posts starting Monday

A Verse of Maydogma: Title Game Edition

2006-04-03T09:16:00.000-07:00

Thoughts while getting ready to sleep through the Title Game

Hey, let’s make fun of Adam Morrison for crying again…That’s never gets old…And it’s not heartless or anything…

Why yes, I DID have South Carolina in my NIT pool…

Tom Peroca=St John’s Coach in 2008…You heard it here first…

Congrats go to Florida. Not for just making the title game, but for making the title and convincing everyone that you’re not gonna lose in the first round NEXT year, thus guaranteeing everyone picks the Gator win when they will lose. Call it an early prediction: Florida going to ruin lots of brackets next year…

Because I couldn’t possibly care about how you did in your pool, but NEED to tell you how I did (2006 Version): Shockingly, for the first time since 2000, I had a chance to win my pool if LSU could pull down the championship…Well, we know how that one turned out…

So let’s add this ‘so close’ tournament pool to the ever expanding lsit of “Bryan Mayer Heartbreaking Losses from 2002-2006,” joining Yankees-Red Sox, Notre Dame-USC, and the hot chick in Sweden having a boyfriend. When the Rangers are hoisting the Stanley Cup in June, they might be enough for me to give up on life and not shave for weeks and weeks (Oh wait, I do that anyway…)

I’m sorry…I really like ‘One Shining Moment’…and yes, I know this makes me a wuss…

And finally, tonight prediction: Final Score: UCLA 21- Florida 19 (Ugh)