Tales from the First Weekend



If you even read the words “I’m picking Duke to make the Final Four” on this site ever again, please just punch me in the face.


(As a follow-up, I don’t think I’ve regretted a pick quicker than my Duke pick. I think it was 5 minutes into the Belmont game when I said, “OK seriously, what the fuck was I thinking?”)


Good for you, American…


Things I hate most in this world: 1) Violence 2) Racism 3) The Big Ten 4) Cats


UNLV winning their first game = the lock of the tournament every year


Cal St-Fullerton had me believing I still had the magic for about 1 half. Then reality kicked in…


Maydog’s Top 3 Teams that can Go to Hell, Under the radar Edition:

3) Cornell- Thanks for playing guys

2) Vanderbilt- 20 pts??? To a team from the MAAC?? WTF?

1) Winthrop- Maybe you should have pretended Wash St. was wearing Notre Dame jersey. Instead of scoring like 5 points in the second half, you would have scored 100 and won. Get out of my life and don’t come back.


If Ohio St wins tonight, I hereby declared myself the “King of the NIT Tournament Pools.”


This is probably where I should bring up Notre Dame’s crushing loss. Yep, they lost, it sucked. That’s all I got. Let us never bring this up again...


You mean Michigan St. may get back to the Elite Eight the one year I finally ‘give up’ on picking them? Get outta here. That never happens...


Final verdict: I was right about Georgetown being overrated. Please let me have this ONE moral victory.


I smell fried raccoon. You what that means? West Virginia must be in the Sweet 16…


Speaking of that merry bunch of hicks and their drunk driver coach, as a fan of a second tier Big East basketball program, the fact that WVA is the model for us all fills me with such rage that I want to go throw fruit at Kevin Pittsnogle, wherever he may be…


Will Gonzaga ever win a game when they’re a higher seed? Should they just ignore the seeding and pretend they are a low seed? For example: If they get a 4 seed next year, they should ask the committee to list them as a 16. They’d probably win the title…


Go ‘Nova….


New Rules for next year:

The “Lucifer has a summer home in the Missouri Valley” Rule- Never pick team for the Missouri Valley Conference - Fuck you Drake.


The “Wally Szerbiack/Dwyane Wade/Stephan Curry” Rule- Try to find the ‘tournament story’ player and pick his team to go to Finals - An awesome NBA-calibar player from a mid major going off on a scoring binge and carrying a smaller school; doesn’t this always happen ever few years? I may need actually some research next year instead of typing my column from the bathroom


The ACC Rule- Never trust a team with the ACC not named North Carolina (ok fine, and maybe Duke) in the first 2 rounds - Did you think Clemson was a lock up 18pts? Throw in Wake Forest’s history of ALWAYS failing to get to the Sweet Sixteen, and that’s enough for me.


Final verdict: I was right about Pitt, too. So what if I was wrong about EVERYTHING else?


Fucking UConn

Labels: College Basketball, Verse of Maydogma

Here are the records for conferences I called overated in my preview:


Big 12: 7-4
A10: 2-2
WCC: 1-3
Big East: 10-5
Big Ten: 5-2 (!)



First Round: 17-7
2nd Round: 8-9
Total: 25-16


Let there be no doubt, I'm a moron...

Labels: College Basketball

The Mike Lupica Memorial "I couldn't possibly care about who your Final Four picks are, but here are mine" FF Post:


I just want get this documented because last year, I got all Four right, but have no lasting proof.

MAYDOG PICKS:
East: Tennessee
Midwest: Georgetown
South: Memphis
West: Duke (Dear god, What am I thinking?)

Champion: Memphis


Dream/Who I'm rooting for Final Four
East: Notre Dame
Midwest: Villanova
South: Kentucky (The Yankees factor)
West: Somehow, everyone loses

Champion: Notre Dame


Nightmare/'There is No God' Final Four
East: Indiana
Midwest: Southern Cal
South: Stanford
West: West Virginia

Champion: Southern Cal


If it happens, and I look stupid, I'll be really pissed Final Four
East: Indiana
Midwest: Wisconsin
South: Michigan State
West: Purdue

Champion: Indiana

Labels: College Basketball

Ah, so many tournaments, so many memories….


While preparing to write this column for the 6th (!) straight year, I started looking back ‘fondly’ at the memorable moments I’ve had. Who could forget the time I picked Syracuse to go to the Final Four, only to watch Gerry McNamara shoot 0 for 1,000,000?


Or, during the year that my column was published on 411mania, I suggested that picking Manhattan over Florida was moronic, then watched in horrible as the Gators typically (at the time) choked, followed the next day by an avalanche of angry emails from Manhattan alumni, pissed that I told them to stop living off one moment?


Or last year, when I called anyone who was picking against Duke in round 1 an idiot, then VCU went and upset Duke? Or when I claimed my blog would get less hits than some freaky animal porn site where some dudes bang a pig while eating strips of bacon?


Ah, fun times....


But they haven't all been littered with poor predictions. Some may remember my 'shocking' picks of Bucknell over Kansas, & NW St over Iowa (which I ignored and bet money on Iowa like an idiot). Or Carmello's National championship that I called. Or picking #1 seed St. Joe's to reach the Final Four (when no one else was) and coming within one precious minute of it being true. Or last year, when I predicted all four teams in the Final Four correctly, only I forgot to document it on this site and thus have no proof?


This year, it is truly my goal to make you screw up your office pool beyond imagination. You hear me: Final Four picks losing by 25 pts in Round 2. A Sweet Sixteen match up between a 10 and 15 seed. Maybe even a 0-32 first round that gets you a perfect "0" in your office pool. Anything's possible; if you follow my contracting, confusing, ridiculous, illogical advice, you will go down in flames. I don't just promise it; I guarantee it.


So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the free fall, as MAYDOGMA proudly presents: Maydog’s 6th annual guide on “How to lose your office pool as fast as humanly possibly.”


As a recent added challenge, I will try to include ALL 65 tournament teams at least once in the column. That way, I will have talked you out of every single team in the field. Good? Good; let's begin with my annual rules:



-The Kentucky Rule- Pick the #1 team in the country to win it all. Hey, they’re the best team in the country. The best team ALWAYS wins. Go North Carolina….

Or UCLA….

Or North Carolina…

Or UCLA…

Or…ah fuck it…



-The UCLA in 96 / Michigan State in 2001 Rule- Overrate the defending champion. Doesn’t apply this year (and thank God for that. Bye, bye Gators. Have fun winning the NIT.)


- The 'Hey, It could happen' rule- Pick a 16 seed to win.- Mount St Mary (but not Coppin State) is a juicy pick right now….Portland State is giving me a warm feeling…Mississippi Valley St. is really frisky…UT Arlington is screaming “Pick me”…Let me know how this one works out for ya…


- The Big Ten Rule- Develop a biased opinion against one specific conference. Talk yourself into calling all its members ‘overrated.’ This year’s conference is …actually, let’s draw this out a little, shall we? With such a soft bubble, lots of teams got into the tournament this year that normally wouldn’t, increasing the possibility of a conference being overrated. Here are the top 5 candidates, in order of elimination:


-The Big 12- Kansas AND Texas, two schools that never win it all, as top seeds? Oklahoma and Texas A&M underachieving? Kansas St. and Baylor as sleepers? Color me suspicious.


-The WCC- 3 teams in, but Gonzaga is really just living off its rep. Saint Mary, too.


-The A-10- Lots of hype, but the numbers don’t back it up. All year, all we heard about was how “The A-10 is this year’s MVC” and how “The A-10 could get 5 teams in” and how “Rhode Island and UMass are really good teams.” Not only did both of those teams NOT make it, but St. Joe’s and Temple both needed miracle runs in their conference tournament just to make it. Pick accordingly.


-Runner-up: The Big East- I explained this in an earlier post, but as much as it pains me, the warning signs are there. The Big East, especially Georgetown, had very few OOC victories to hang their hats on this year. Does this make them overrated? A little. Can they still win? Of course. It’s a just warning flag is all.


But of course, there’s only one winner of this coveted award. This year’s run away winner for overrated, crappy conference goes to:


- The Jenna Jameson “I’ve been screwed too many times” Big Ten Rule- Never, NEVER, NEVER (!!!!!!) pick a Big Ten team. Prediction: Not a single Big Team makes to the Sweet Sixteen. Fucking Big Ten. More on this later.

(Note: I thought about giving Michigan State another pass and hoping they’d get back on track after two straight tournament disappointments; but you know what? I’m tired of backing MSU and looking like an idiot. So back into the pool of overrated Big Ten teams you go. Until Tommy Izzo proves he still has the magic, I’m off the gravy wagon. (See watch, now that I called them out, here comes the miracle Spartan Elite Eight run…))


- The Providence in 95/Seton Hall in 97/ Saint John's in 2000/Syracuse in 2006 Rule- Pick a team that ONLY looked good in the Big East tournament, unless they are the dirty hillbillies of West Virginia.- Well, I predicted just such a scenario a week ago. Pitt, which looked so-so all season, then turned on the jets and won the BET. Was Pitt good all along and is this another WVA, or will Pitt crash and burn like Syracuse did? Time will tell.


(Note: You could add West Virginia and their new merry bunch of hillbillies to this category too, complete with their new little mini-Pittsnoggle, Joe Alexander. Personally, I’d rather jam a fork into my eye than think about another Mountaineers super-run, so I’ll forget about them for now.)


- The Rose-Colored Glasses Rule- Pick your alma mater to win several games. Trust me, your favorite team will ALWAYS make a deep run, especially if you pick them.


(I really don’t know what to make of Notre Dame right now. An AWESOME home team, ND can’t seem to get going on the road, especially if their 3-pt shooting is off. Half the country has Notre Dame as a sleeper, bandwagon pick; others have predict another early exit. Personally, I don’t which side of the fence I’m on…Ah, you know what, fuck that….Sweet 16, here we come….)


(As always, there is ONE exception to this rule. If your alma mater is in the tournament, and there’s a good chance they probably won’t be there again for another 20 years, by all means, pick away. I call this the Loyola-Maryland corollary. This year’s team: U. of Maryland-Baltimore County. Honorable Mention goes to Baylor.)


(One more note: I used to call this “the Siena Corollary”, but Siena has been in the tournament a lot recently. That, and I’ve developed a nice healthy hatred for upstate NY recently b/t the MAAC Tournament, Buffalo Sabres ridiculous fans, and the Elliot Spitzer thing. So Siena’s out. That reminds me:)


- The “Peeing over the side of Niagara Falls” rule- Pick teams for the state of New York to win.- Let’s see we’ve got Sienna, and Cornell, and...... wait, that’s FUCKING it? You’re kidding me right? What a disgrace. As always, I blame Mike Jarvis. Well, at least New Jersey got no one in.


Continuing my ‘state’ theme:


- The Bugsy Siegel rule- Pick teams from the states of Nevada and Utah to win their first games. - Hmmm….UNLV always seems to win its first round game. I wonder why? Hmmm….


- The Jane Krivickas- Illinois rule- Find out which STATE has the most schools from it in the tournament. Pick all those schools. A reader suggested this rule after she claimed to fill out her brackets using only schools located in Illinois. This year's winner: California, with UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Southern Cal, St. Marys, San Diego, Cal St-Fullerton, Cal St-Western School of Pork, The Academy of Awards, U. of Cal- by the Ocean, Bayside High, and the rest of the gang.

(Honorable mention this year goes to Indiana, with Purdue, IU, Butler, and Notre Dame, mostly because I say so.)


- The ‘Vegas casinos are built on the backs of suckers’ Rule- Find the popular upset picks, then run from them. A few popular upset picks this year: Sienna over Vanderbilt, Winthrop over Washington St, Western Kentucky over Drake, and….you know what, I refuse to list the last one because I don’t want to see it in print. You figure it out. Anyway, 95% of the people who will pick the lower seeds haven’t seen them play once this year. Why should you listen to them?

(Actually, why should you listen to me? What’s wrong with you? Have you seen my track record? I would have bet money on Gen. Custard if I had the chance.)


-The Pittsburg(h)* Rule- Pick with (insert team). Or against them. Or with them. Or against them. Throughout the years, I have learned that there are some teams just can’t be trusted, no matter how good or bad they are playing. Here are a few teams that will always give you headaches:

• Pittsburg: The new MVP of the list. The best Big East regular season and tournament team of the last few years…and hasn’t made it passed the Sweet 16, even when getting 2 & 3 seeds.

• Arizona: Lose when they should win; win when they should lose.

• Maryland: Never trust the Turtle. You’ll regret it!

• Texas: Can’t be trusted as a high seed.

• UConn: I’ve given up on trying to figure them out. Which is it fellas: are you a powerhouse up and comer, or do you just steal laptops? Pick one…

• Any team coached by Roy Williams: UNC is good, as always, but Roy’s teams do tend to choke when they don’t have 5 NBA-caliber players on them. See recent example: last year vs. Georgetown. Or to quote Roy: I don’t give a shit about North Carolina.

• Purdue: An oldie but a goodie. Anyone else remember backing Big Dog, then crashing and burning?

• Arkansas: Another oldie. Do they ever win tournament games anymore?

• Any team coached by Bobby Knight: Doesn’t apply this year.

• Indiana: *Formerly the Indiana rule, which shows you would bad things have gone for them recent. (First, they lose their lying cheating coach; then their rule in Maydog’s column. I’m sure they’re crying about it.) In my opinion, Indiana is the most completely unpredictable team in the tournament right now. They could either lose their first game by 50 pts, or go all the way to the finals; and frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Fucking cornboys…

• Gonzaga: I STILL have never picked a Zags games correctly.

•And, as always, two special teams that deserve their own rules this year:


- The Jayhawks Rule: Never pick Kansas. I think I picked Kansas to go to the Final Four every time they were a #1 seed until I finally wised up last year. Proceed with caution when building your brackets around Kansas. You’ve been warned…


And…


- The Posers Rule- Underestimate Duke. Or Don’t Underestimate Duke. Or Underestimate Duke. Which Coach K team will show up this year: the one that wins championships or the only that chokes against UConn, Kansas, Indiana, Michigan State, LSU, and VCU (List gets longer and longer every year)? I never have any idea. Actually, Duke reminds me of something:


- The Duke in ’99 rule-Be very, VERY careful when backing a one loss team A new rule. I’m probably picking Memphis this year, but I also picked the last two teams that entered the tournament with only one loss (St Joe’s in 2004, Duke in 1999). One loss/undefeated territory is rarified air. Just be careful not to suffocate. (Just ask the Patriots. HA!)


The “Gold star” rule- Long tournament drought=Short tournament run Baylor and Clemson just broke long tournament appearance droughts and may see that as enough of an accomplishment. Beware the letdown…


- The George Mason Rule: Always pick teams that ‘didn’t belong in the tournament’ to win their first round game. Lost in the big GM run of 2 years ago was the fact they didn’t deserve a bid in the first place. A little motivation can go a long way. This rule doesn’t really apply this year; the bubble was so crappy, you couldn’t really make a case that someone didn’t deserve to be in. There’s only been minimal discussion of Villanova or Baylor's inclusion anyway. In fact, the team that REALLY didn’t deserve to be in was Georgia, and they won their way in.


-The Haley’s Coment Rule: Try to find ‘the next George Mason.’ Note: I’m intentionally skipping writing about George Mason and Winthrop this year for karma reasons because they scare the crap out of me. Let’s just move on…Run with this one instead:


- The Valpo rule- Mid majors suck and never win. Kent St, Davidson. You have no chance to win and shouldn’t even try.


- The Pinky and All-Brainy Rule- Pick the Ivory League team to win. I do this every year just because Pete Carrill won those games in the mid 90’s, which I picked in my brackets. Go…wait it’s not Penn or Princeton this year, it’s Cornell! Oh the hell with that then… Just pick Stanford.


-The Austin P. rule - Pick a school whose chant it the ultra-cool “Let’s go P./Let’s go P." Self explanatory.


-The 16 years of Catholic School rule - Pick against the Mormons. Later BYU…


The Boston College Rule- Pick against teams you just don’t like. The key to picking correct brackets is to use your head as little as possible. All heart baby… Pick against Southern California because of football rivalries. Pick against Georgetown because you couldn’t get into school there. Pick against Villanova because Jay Wright makes you question your sexuality. Pick against Xavier because the letter ‘X’ confuses and disturbs you.


Wait, I got some more. Pick against Miami because you don’t tan well. Pick against Marquette because you’re lactose intolerant and hate dairy. Pick against Oregon because you hate yellow. Pick against Mississippi State because you can’t spell ‘Mississippi’. Pick against San Diego because you were once bitten by a seal. Pick against Kentucky because they suck (opps, sorry, that's a REAL reason not to pick Kentucky.) Try to find the most inane reason possible that has little to do with basketball, then pick accordingly…


-The Broken Compass rule- Never pick a school with a direction in its name. Western Kentucky, South Alabama. You suck (I have nothing more to add).


-The Oral Roberts rule- Make fun of Oral Roberts in the lamest way possible, like saying “hey, my dentist’s name is Oral Roberts, he he” and think you’re re-inventing comedy. Oh wait, sorry, that’s the EVERY OTHER lame ‘We’re trying to be funny with our picks’ column. I was just filling my quota…


-The St. Joe's in 2004 rule/Memphis in 2006-7 rule- ‘Bad’ Conference Champion=Elite Eight. I’ve been following this line of thinking for a few years now, ever since my St. Joe's Final Four pick in 2004. ‘Upper’ mid-major (Non-BCS: CUSA, A-10, Horizon league) champions that receive high seeds have most people picking against them making the Sweet Sixteen because it’s perceived that they came from a crappy conference. Teams like that ALWAYS surprise you. Consider picking Drake, Xavier, or Butler this year as a test run. (And yes, also consider lighting your money on fire while you’re at it.)


- The “Maydog Inflated Ego” Rule: Try to be a hero/ Duplicate past successes- For two years, between 2005-2006, MAYDOGMA gave you THE correct ridiculous upset pick of the first round, hitting with #14 Bucknell over #3 Kansas in 2005 (which was awesome), & then #13 Northwestern St. over #4 Iowa in 2006 (which was awful because I ignored my own stupid advice and bet money on Iowa). Last year, Miami of Ohio, which had played terribly except for one week, came within 2 points of knocking off Oregon and keeping my streak alive. You’d think I’d stop now that my streak is over, right? RIGHT!?? Of course not! So let’s try to figure out this year’s ridiculous upset pick:


Here are this year’s candidates, in order of elimination:

-Mississippi Valley St over UCLA (too insane)

- UMBC over Georgetown (I’d feel a little vindicated, but this outcome has no chance of happening)

-Cornell over Stanford (Nope)

-Oral Roberts over Pitt (Hmmmm......)

-Boise St. over Louisville (Double Hmmmm......)

-Western Kentucky over Drake (Not big enough upset)

-Winthrop over Washington St. (Also not big enough)

-Second runner up- Belmont over Duke (This can’t possibly happen, right?)

-The runner up- American over Tennessee (I really like Tennessee right now, but there are definitely a few Coppin State / South Carolina parallels going on here.)


And the winner of this year’s ridiculous Maydog upset pick is #14 Cal-State-Fullerton over #3 Wisconsin

I know absolutely nothing about CS-Ful. Nothing. Not even their nickname. You could ask me to guess players on their squad and I’d start with “Joe Smith.” Wisconsin is scorching hot and the only Big Ten team really worth a damn. This pick is beyond ridiculous and makes no sense. You know that that means…. (God, I’m such an idiot…)


So, after reading this column, you could follow my advice and be on your way to the poor house. OR… you could just go in this direction:


-Finally, the Dick Vitale Final Four Picks Rule- Never pick a lower seed to win. Upsets? There are never any upsets!!


Happy picking everyone.

Labels: College Basketball

Where did this tournament come from?

http://gobearcats.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/cinn/sports/m-baskbl/auto_pdf/cbi-bracket

I'm ripe with questions: Why would any self respecting school want to be in a 3rd tier tournament? (Well, that explains why Cincinatti's there.) What were the bare miminal requirements? Why didn't Loyola or St. John's get involved? And most importantly, can I gamble on this?

Of course, I can:

Round 1: Washington, Nevada, Virginia, ODU, Utah, Tulsa, Cincy, Ohio

Round 2: Nevada, ODU, Tulsa, Cincy

Semifinals: Nevada, Cincy

Finals: Cincy (Ha!)

Labels: CBI, College Basketball

I’ve made some comments about the Big East being overrated nationally this year. And while, yes, the conference was very deep and 8 teams ended up in the tournament despite beating up each other, the quality OOC victories for the BE this year are very sparse.


Here is a list of the Top Ten (imo) the Big East’s OOC Wins:

Pitt @ Duke
Marquette @ Wisc
UConn @ Indiana
ND over KSU (N)
Prov over Arkansas
LV @ Kentucky
Pitt @ Ok St
Cuse over St Joe’s
USF over FSU
Nova over LSU

I mean, look at that list. OK, the first two were big victories, the next 3 were solid wins over quality tournament teams, and the next one only gained prominence b/c Kentucky eventually turned its season around. But the rest? That was really the best I could come up with; seriously. You could make a case that some losing efforts (Marquette vs. Duke, WVA vs. Tenn., Upon vs. Memphis) were better that half the wins on this list. Note how 3 of the victories came from teams not in the tournament.


Also, note how many times Georgetown, the consensus ‘Best team in the BE’ and #2 seed, appears on the list. Um, ZERO. Can you name GT’s best OOC win this year? They don’t have one. Look in it up. American? William & Mary? Throw in a game where GT got killed (don’t let the final score fool you; GT was destroyed in this game and couldn’t keep up) and it’s safe to say that GT beat no one outside the BE all year. Is this a bad thing? Not neccessiary, but it doesn’t make them (or anyone else in the BE) look good. On Saturday, I was thinking GT might have an outside shot at a 1 seed; in retrospect, after reviewing their schedule, they would have been one of the worst 1 seeds of all-time.


So I’m not saying that the Big East CAN’T beat anyone nationally this year. It’s just that they haven’t, and for a conference with 8 tournament, that’s a bit of of a rarity. I hope it doesn’t bite them in the ass this week; and while I don’t think it will b/c of the talent of some of the teams, it’s not a stretch to say that they may be a touch overrated.

Labels: Big East, College Basketball

I don't care at all about the Women's championship and never really have. (Even when ND won the ONLY national championship of me 4 years there in 2001, I was kinda like 'Um, Ok that's cool; hey look, Wrestlemania's on.')

I could go on and on about the reasons why (the lack of fundimentals, the crowds, Geno Auriemma, the announcers, the GOD-AWFUL refs, Geno Auriemma), but do have one comment/conspriracy theory that is very evident in this year's bracket: Women's college basketball is fixed. You heard me: fixed. The whole sport is gears around fixing it so either UConn and Tennesee win it all every year. In fact, the woman's committee, when announcing the brackets, should just, "Ok, UConn's a 1 seed, Tennesee's a 1 seed; the rest of you, um, just decide among yourselves and let us know how it works out."

Case in point: Rutgers, a team everyone LOVES this year for karma reasons, is giving the worst draw possible and put them the same region as UConn when there is no way that were the worst 2 seed. Throw in about a THOUSAND shady calls in the last 10 years that SHOCKINGLY ALWAYS go for UConn or Tenn., and you're sitting there thiking "Hmmmm....maybe you're right, Maydog, and women's college b-ball IS more rigged than boxing."


Ok enough of that...

Labels: College Basketball

A Maydogma Tradition continues....

http://www.nit.org/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/sports/m-nit/auto_pdf/031708-bracket


Here are my picks for this year's Not In Tournament:

1st Round: Ohio St, Cal, Dayton, Illinois St, Morgan St (think VA Tech wants to play this game?), VCU, Nebraska, Mississippi St., Arizona St (eh, I think they'll be motivated for a few days), South Illinois, Rhode Island, Florida (Ha!), Syracuse (they won their first game last year in front of the largest NIT crowd ever; so I'll be pissed if it doesn't happen this year), Maryland, Akron, UMass

2nd Round: Ohio St, Dayton, VCU, Mississippi St., Arizona St, Florida, Maryland, UMass

Semi-Finals: Ohio St, VCU, Florida, Maryland

Finals: Ohio St, Florida

Winner: Florida


(Note: I'm bucking the trend of picking against bubble teams and going with some big names. Plus, I think some NIT official might get an idea of "Hey, we could rig this thing so last year's championship finalist are in the NIT finals this year and steal 'headlines' for a few minutes." Plus, I could see the pissy Florida fans being happy about being undefeat in 3 straight post season and how that's the 'greatest thing to ever happen in basketball history' or some crap like that.)


Happy Picking...

Labels: College Basketball, NIT

Maydog’s Updated Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

As promised, my updated projected BE teams and seeds for the NCAA tournament:

Georgetown (2) (Pissed away their unexpected chance at 1 seed with finals loss)
Pitt (3) (Warned you about this one; I still wouldn't be shocked if they flip seeds with GT; Let the upset picks begin)
Louisville (4) (Could still be 3)
UConn (5) (Loss to WVA drops them one spot)
Marquette (5) (Did enough to move up a level)
Notre Dame (6) (Just a hunch; Let the outrage begin)
West Virginia (9) (Love to see second round vs Tennessee btw)


NIT: Villanova (I want to be wrong, but UNLV winning the autobid, and St Joe's NOT winning auto-bid may have been enough to end it. If Illinois or Georgia win Sunday, Nova is definately out) & Syracuse

Labels: College Basketball

Tales 3 days before Selection Sunday

(Now with Reactionary Notre Dame Comments!)


Ok, I’ll try, TRY to get through this without any ridiculous Notre Dame/Mike Brey statements (like how maybe, JUST FUCKING MAYBE, it may have been worth abandoning the zone sooner than with 2 minutes left when it clearly wasn’t working and Marquette was shooting about 70% in the second half?!! Might that have been a good idea???....grrr...OK, I’ll stop...)


Hey, I think Georgetown just hit another 3...


Yeah, so that whole “picking UConn for the Elite eight” crap...You can go ahead and ignore that one, ok?



So, does anyone actually want to make the NCAA’s? Syracuse? St. Joe’s? UMass? UAB? Anybody? Maryland?


Speaking of the ACC, nothing warms my heart more than looking at their standings and seeing “BC: 4-12”…Still think it was worth it, fellows?…


In other ‘kicking you while you’re down’ news, nice no-show by Syracuse in the second half Wednesday. Somewhere, on that D-League trail, Gerry McNamara was crying in his Zima...


Well, here we go again with West Virginia. You know what that means? More fruit thrown at Maydog...


I have no evidence to prove it, but I think Seton Hall may have been the worst team to ever play in the BET.


I mean, come on: I was really pissed me off last year when all the idiots who hadn't seen ND play at all kept picking Winthrop based on a) the analysts' Winthrop love and b) the bias/hatred half the country has for ND. Throw in that there is now AMPLE evidence that they can't beat a good team in a big game away from South Bend. A win could have avoided all this. Now I get to hear this crap for the rest of the week. I mean, can you imagine if they're matched-up with George Mason? Or VCU? Or (gasp) Winthrop?

(Sorry, can’t help myself...I’ll let it go...)


Thanks a lot, Pitino...Someday I may actually predict the correct champion of this thing...Add Louisville to the ‘teams I just don’t fully trust’ entering next week, along with Tennessee, Kansas (as always), Southern Cal, Xavier, and, OF COURSE, Indiana...


OK, I know I’m biased, but Villanova probably should be in at this point…At least they WON a must-win game, unlike every other bubble team...


Congrats to the Big East Referees for earning a #1 seed in the “Worst Sports Officials Ever” Tournament. When I fill out my brackets, I definitely see them going far, but ultimately losing in the Final Four to fellow #1 seed “every NHL referee ever.”

Labels: College Basketball, Verse of Maydogma

And now, the contenders. With one exception, I believe any of these 6 teams can win the BET, and, based on the school's overall quality resume, would get the last 2 seed that’s believed to be reserved for the BE Champion.


School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6

Playing for: Needs to ‘right the ship’ slightly after a bad loss to Syracuse; an automatic bid could sent their seed soaring

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 5-6 seed; could be 2-3 seed with a finals appearance

Chance of Winning First Game: 90%

Projected Finish: Lose to Notre Dame, Round 2 (gulp!)

Notes: The first of our title contenders appears. Marquette’s loss to Syracuse kinda killed the momentum that the Golden Eagles had built up the previous few weeks. Fortunately for them, they’re playing Seton Hall first, a perfect opponent for them to destroy and get that momentum back. Marquette is this year’s ‘dangerous’ lower seed in both the BET and the NCAA’s, as they’re talented and ready to take the next step. My head says they could really give ND a brutal game on Thursday (seeing as they beat ND earlier in the year by about 50 pts and didn’t miss a shot all game), so I’m picking with my heart and praying that Marquette doesn’t get a chance to be ‘over-seeded’ based on their win in Wisconsin.



School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 5

Playing for: Only losing to Providence will get cost them a bid; otherwise, not really playing for anything

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 7-10 seed, could be a 6 seed with a title

Chance of Winning First Game: 80%

Projected Finish: Loss to UConn, Round 2.

Notes: Kudos to the Mountaineers for not completely collapsing in what should have been a complete rebuilding year and getting hot at the end to steal the 5 seed from Marquette. WVA is solidly in the NCAA’s right now, but probably shouldn’t mess around with a loss to Providence. However, with the bubble as soft as it is, it would be really hard NOT to include 7 BE teams, so WVA could get in anyway. Their overall profile will make hard it for them to get above an 8-9 game though, so Bob Huggins’s team really will have little to play for after Wednesday.



School: Connecticut

BET Seed: 4

Playing for: Cap off a comeback year with a high seed (that would transform them from ‘sleeper’ to ‘contender’)

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 2 seed with the title, 3 seed with finals run, 4 seed otherwise.

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville, Finals.

Notes: I was on the “UConn is the best team in the Big East and a sleeper Final Four contender” bandwagon for a few months; then they went and inexplicably lose to Providence last week. So as someone planning on picking a long Huskies run, I’m a little frazzled right now (and disappointed, as a 4-5 seeded Connecticut team would have gotten much better odds). UConn (definitely a Top 10 team entering next year) is loaded with young talent right now, including a monster center that will cause all sorts of teams match-up problems in the NCAAs. As for the BET, Jim Calhoun (my pick for BE Coach of the Year) should have his players ready to play behind a largely pro-UConn crowd on Thursday, setting off a run to the finals.



School: Notre Dame

BET Seed: 3

Playing for: Trying to shed an unjust ‘home warrior’ label and win its way into a slightly higher seed.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 2-3 seed with a title; otherwise 4-5 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (gulp!)

Projected Finish: Lose to Louisville, Semi-Finals.

Notes: Sporting 2 All-Big East players, the Irish look to get a big win (or two) at MSG to solidify their status as a Top 4 seed and shed an unfair claim that they can’t win on the road. (FYI, 2008 BE Road Records: GT & LV: 6-3, UConn & ND: 5-4, so it’s not like everyone else was tearing it up away from home.) Unfortunately, the Irish got the hardest draw of all the top teams, starting with a good Marquette team (the only match-up of ranked teams before the semi-finals) and then a Louisville team that’s a bad match-up for the Irish. (Big centers have been Luke Harangody’s kryptonite all season.) (Plus, throw in the historic lack of success Notre Dame has had at MSG.) In particular, the Marquette game is a ‘nothing to gain, something to lose’ game for ND, as a loss may drop them behind Marquette and/or Pitt, while a win isn’t enough to push them past UConn just yet. And while a good showing vs. LV could raise their seed slightly, I belive only a title would get the Irish to the 3 line. Just winning the first game is enough for me; just keep Kyle McAlarney’s threes dropping and Marquette cold, and a run to the semis is possible.


School: Louisville

BET Seed: 2

Playing for: A Top Seed and the label of “Big East team most likely to go the Final Four”

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A finals run may clinch a 2 seed if things break right nationally.

Chance of Winning First Game: 75%

Projected Finish: Champion

Notes: Another team with a monster center that’s ready to wreck havoc. Louisville was scorching hot before losing some stream in a loss at Georgetown that cost them the regular season title. A rematch vs. GT in the finals could be enough to get BOTH teams 2 seeds if things break right nationally. I love how Louisville played this year (though I wish, as with everyone else in the BE, that they had a better OOC victory), and truly think Rick Pitno’s bunch is the class of the league right now. The Cardinals have the talent and the motivation to put together a good run this week to bring them the title and a 2 seed. Whether that will translate to success in the NCAA’s is another matter.


School: Georgetown

BET Seed: 1

Playing for: A 2 seed that would ensure an easier path back to the Final Four

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 3 seed no matter what, 2 seed with title. (And if you’re curious, would need about 8 teams to lose quickly to get 1 seed, no it ain’t happening.)

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%

Projected Finish: Loss to UConn, Semi-Finals.

Notes: Last year’s champion and the 2008 regular season winner, Georgetown looks to make one last run of the Hilbert-Green era before a transition year kicks in. However, while clearly one of the best teams in the BE, Georgetown has beaten NO ONE nationally this year and are something of a paper champion in my opinion. (More on that next week.) After the Hoyas end the tournament hopes of Villanova or Syracuse in Round 2, a semi-final match-up with UConn looms. And while GT is more experienced, they should be locked into a 3 seed by then and only looking to move up one slot. Is that enough to motivate GT, especially in what would essentially be a UConn home game on Friday night? I say no, so the Hoyas will take their 3 seed and rest up for another NCAA run.



So to recap:

Maydogma Predictions for 2008 BET

First Round
West Virginia over Providence
Marquette over Seton Hall
Pitt over Cincinnati
Villanova over Syracuse

Second Round
Georgetown over Villanova
Louisville over Pitt
Notre Dame over Marquette
UConn over West Virginia

Semi-Finals
UConn over Georgetown
Louisville over Notre Dame

Finals
Louisville over UConn


Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the actual tournament plays out.)

Georgetown (3)
Louisville (2)
Notre Dame (5)
UConn (4)
Pitt (7)
Marquette (5)
West Virginia (10)

NIT: Syracuse, Villanova

Labels: College Basketball

A quick preview of this week’s Big East Tournament:


Top to bottom, the Big East was a much better and deeper conference this year than in 2007. Going into the conference championship tournament, 6 teams have sewed up an NCAA tournament bid, 1 is a virtual lock, 2 more will be playing each other for a bid (maybe) on Wednesday, and the other 3 teams are unpredictable underdogs.

Some of this depth can be attributed to the talent influx of the last few years (Teams like Louisville and Connecticut should be competing for #1 seeds next year, while Syracuse and Villanova are young enough to be contenders soon.).

Of course, this year also probably sports the weakest group of national bubble teams ever. (And, as much as it pains me, I believe the Big East is a little overrated nationally this year. But we’ll get to that next week.)

The top teams have little left to play for this week (other than slight seeding changes), opening up the possibility of a deep run by an underdog to grab the automatic bid. Despite not having a true live underdog this year, no one would be shocked by:

1) A terrible regular season team like Seton Hall or Cincinnati finally snapping out of a season long funk
2) A talented middling team like Villanova, Syracuse, or West Virginia copying Syracuse’s 2006 run off the bubble and into a 5 seed
3) A high seeded team like UConn, Pitt, Marquette or Notre Dame getting a good draw and catching fire
4) An upper echelon team like Georgetown or Louisville putting themselves on the map nationally with a dominating performance.

Of course, seeding-wise, the committee ALWAYS “over-ranks” the BE champion; all of the Top 6 teams would most likely receive a #2 seed with a deep run at MSG this week, with everyone else looking an undeserving-ly high #5-6 seed for one good week of work. So as usual, when filling out your brackets next , beware the hot Big East team that only looks good in the BET.

Today, I’ll analyze the bottom 6 seeds’ chances (including NCAA implications), followed tomorrow by the Top 6 and full predictions.



School: Providence

BET Seed: 12

Playing for: Trying to save Tim Welsh's job, b/c even an NIT bid is a bit of a long shot

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed, need to win BET for bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 20%

Projected Finish: Loss to West Virgina, Round 1.

Notes: Welsh's job security is at an all-time low, even though their win over UConn last week allowed the Friars to sneak into the BET. Still 50-50 he gets fired. Only a run to the finals will get the Friars a postseason bid of any kind. With that said, Providence has been playing better lately and an upset over West Virginia isn't entirely out of the question.


School: Seton Hall
BET Seed: 11

Playing for: Pride, I guess.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 10%

Projected Finish: Lost to Marquette, Round 1.

Notes: IMO, the worst team in this year’s field. After a decent start to the year, Seton Hall collapsed in conference play and probably needs two wins to get to the NIT. I really have nothing else to add here, because from the few times I watched them, the Pirates have really been pretty awful (including Sunday’s terrible collapse vs. Rutgers) and should get plastered on Wednesday by a good Marquette team that’s looking to ‘right’ the ship.


School: Cincinnati
BET Seed: 10

Playing for: The right to be the first BE team in forever to make NCAA’s with a non-winning record.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 10-12 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 25%

Projected Finish: Lose to Pitt, Round 1.

Notes: What a crazy year for the Bearcats: A TERRIBLE overall record but a decent BE year (all things considered) that would have been better sans that late 5-game losing streak and the embarrassing loss to UConn Sunday. This team is IMPOSSIBLE to figure out right now, so I'll just assume that they lose by 70 to Pitt.


School: Syracuse
BET Seed: 9

Playing for: The definition of a bubble team; needs to impress the committee this week

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 8-10 seed; 5 seed if they win tourney

Chance of Winning First Game: 49%

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova, Round 1

Notes: After getting screwed by the committee last year, due mostly to a poor SOS, the Orange boast the #8 SOS (somehow; seriously, what good OOC team have they played anyway?). With the bubble being as soft as it is, one win over ‘Nova may be enough to get them in as the BE's 8th team. In addition, an upset over Georgetown could then send their seed soaring ala 2 years ago. But let’s not get ahead of ourselves…


School: Villanova
BET Seed: 8

Playing for: Needs to win first game to become a bubble team; then needs to play its way into the tournament.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed; 5 seed if they win tourney

Chance of Winning First Game: 51%

Projected Finish: Loss to Georgetown, Round 2

Notes: Unlike Syracuse, A young Villanova team is currently NOT a bubble team until they beat Syracuse. (They’d already be a lock right now is not for some bad luck and fishy calls earlier in the season.) The Cuse-Nova game is the pivotal first round game of the BET tournament, and a de facto elimination game, deciding if the conference has a chance at getting an extra team into the Big Dance. With both teams pretty evenly matched (and sporting similar uninspiring resumes), I believe the winner STILL will need to upset Georgetown in round 2 to get in.. For me, the game is too close to call (I think Syracuse is a little better/hotter right now coming off that win over Marquette, but Villanova is slightly more talented), so I’ll do a semi-homer pick and pick the Wildcats to win, then fail at avenging their screw-job loss to Georgetown in Round 2.


School: Pittsburg
BET Seed: 7

Playing for: This year’s “They could have been better without injuries, but I still think they underachieved” team; needs to win first round game just to be safe (and even if they lose, they’re probably still in)

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed; 5 seed if they win tourney; higher if the committee decides to go insane

Chance of Winning First Game: 75%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville, Round 2.

Notes: The Panthers are looking to return to the finals for the 3rd straight year, as Pitt has been the best and most consistent BET team of the last decade. Despite only a 10-8 conference record, a December win over Duke is keeping Pitt as a lock right now. Not exactly ‘playing with fire’ if they lose to Cincinnati, but it’s not something they want to be doing. A terrible match-up for them awaits in Round 2 vs. Louisville, so while a deep run remains a possibility, I don’t see it. With that said, if Pitt goes far and shockingly gets a #3 seed based solely on that Duke win, I can’t wait to pick against them.


Tomorrow: The Top 6 and full seeding predictions

Labels: College Basketball

Stay tuned for my Big tournament preview today and tomorrow, plus lots of college basketball post in time for tournament time this week

Labels: College Basketball