Ah, so many tournaments, so many memories….


While preparing to write this column for the 6th (!) straight year, I started looking back ‘fondly’ at the memorable moments I’ve had. Who could forget the time I picked Syracuse to go to the Final Four, only to watch Gerry McNamara shoot 0 for 1,000,000?


Or, during the year that my column was published on 411mania, I suggested that picking Manhattan over Florida was moronic, then watched in horrible as the Gators typically (at the time) choked, followed the next day by an avalanche of angry emails from Manhattan alumni, pissed that I told them to stop living off one moment?


Or last year, when I called anyone who was picking against Duke in round 1 an idiot, then VCU went and upset Duke? Or when I claimed my blog would get less hits than some freaky animal porn site where some dudes bang a pig while eating strips of bacon?


Ah, fun times....


But they haven't all been littered with poor predictions. Some may remember my 'shocking' picks of Bucknell over Kansas, & NW St over Iowa (which I ignored and bet money on Iowa like an idiot). Or Carmello's National championship that I called. Or picking #1 seed St. Joe's to reach the Final Four (when no one else was) and coming within one precious minute of it being true. Or last year, when I predicted all four teams in the Final Four correctly, only I forgot to document it on this site and thus have no proof?


This year, it is truly my goal to make you screw up your office pool beyond imagination. You hear me: Final Four picks losing by 25 pts in Round 2. A Sweet Sixteen match up between a 10 and 15 seed. Maybe even a 0-32 first round that gets you a perfect "0" in your office pool. Anything's possible; if you follow my contracting, confusing, ridiculous, illogical advice, you will go down in flames. I don't just promise it; I guarantee it.


So, sit back, relax, and enjoy the free fall, as MAYDOGMA proudly presents: Maydog’s 6th annual guide on “How to lose your office pool as fast as humanly possibly.”


As a recent added challenge, I will try to include ALL 65 tournament teams at least once in the column. That way, I will have talked you out of every single team in the field. Good? Good; let's begin with my annual rules:



-The Kentucky Rule- Pick the #1 team in the country to win it all. Hey, they’re the best team in the country. The best team ALWAYS wins. Go North Carolina….

Or UCLA….

Or North Carolina…

Or UCLA…

Or…ah fuck it…



-The UCLA in 96 / Michigan State in 2001 Rule- Overrate the defending champion. Doesn’t apply this year (and thank God for that. Bye, bye Gators. Have fun winning the NIT.)


- The 'Hey, It could happen' rule- Pick a 16 seed to win.- Mount St Mary (but not Coppin State) is a juicy pick right now….Portland State is giving me a warm feeling…Mississippi Valley St. is really frisky…UT Arlington is screaming “Pick me”…Let me know how this one works out for ya…


- The Big Ten Rule- Develop a biased opinion against one specific conference. Talk yourself into calling all its members ‘overrated.’ This year’s conference is …actually, let’s draw this out a little, shall we? With such a soft bubble, lots of teams got into the tournament this year that normally wouldn’t, increasing the possibility of a conference being overrated. Here are the top 5 candidates, in order of elimination:


-The Big 12- Kansas AND Texas, two schools that never win it all, as top seeds? Oklahoma and Texas A&M underachieving? Kansas St. and Baylor as sleepers? Color me suspicious.


-The WCC- 3 teams in, but Gonzaga is really just living off its rep. Saint Mary, too.


-The A-10- Lots of hype, but the numbers don’t back it up. All year, all we heard about was how “The A-10 is this year’s MVC” and how “The A-10 could get 5 teams in” and how “Rhode Island and UMass are really good teams.” Not only did both of those teams NOT make it, but St. Joe’s and Temple both needed miracle runs in their conference tournament just to make it. Pick accordingly.


-Runner-up: The Big East- I explained this in an earlier post, but as much as it pains me, the warning signs are there. The Big East, especially Georgetown, had very few OOC victories to hang their hats on this year. Does this make them overrated? A little. Can they still win? Of course. It’s a just warning flag is all.


But of course, there’s only one winner of this coveted award. This year’s run away winner for overrated, crappy conference goes to:


- The Jenna Jameson “I’ve been screwed too many times” Big Ten Rule- Never, NEVER, NEVER (!!!!!!) pick a Big Ten team. Prediction: Not a single Big Team makes to the Sweet Sixteen. Fucking Big Ten. More on this later.

(Note: I thought about giving Michigan State another pass and hoping they’d get back on track after two straight tournament disappointments; but you know what? I’m tired of backing MSU and looking like an idiot. So back into the pool of overrated Big Ten teams you go. Until Tommy Izzo proves he still has the magic, I’m off the gravy wagon. (See watch, now that I called them out, here comes the miracle Spartan Elite Eight run…))


- The Providence in 95/Seton Hall in 97/ Saint John's in 2000/Syracuse in 2006 Rule- Pick a team that ONLY looked good in the Big East tournament, unless they are the dirty hillbillies of West Virginia.- Well, I predicted just such a scenario a week ago. Pitt, which looked so-so all season, then turned on the jets and won the BET. Was Pitt good all along and is this another WVA, or will Pitt crash and burn like Syracuse did? Time will tell.


(Note: You could add West Virginia and their new merry bunch of hillbillies to this category too, complete with their new little mini-Pittsnoggle, Joe Alexander. Personally, I’d rather jam a fork into my eye than think about another Mountaineers super-run, so I’ll forget about them for now.)


- The Rose-Colored Glasses Rule- Pick your alma mater to win several games. Trust me, your favorite team will ALWAYS make a deep run, especially if you pick them.


(I really don’t know what to make of Notre Dame right now. An AWESOME home team, ND can’t seem to get going on the road, especially if their 3-pt shooting is off. Half the country has Notre Dame as a sleeper, bandwagon pick; others have predict another early exit. Personally, I don’t which side of the fence I’m on…Ah, you know what, fuck that….Sweet 16, here we come….)


(As always, there is ONE exception to this rule. If your alma mater is in the tournament, and there’s a good chance they probably won’t be there again for another 20 years, by all means, pick away. I call this the Loyola-Maryland corollary. This year’s team: U. of Maryland-Baltimore County. Honorable Mention goes to Baylor.)


(One more note: I used to call this “the Siena Corollary”, but Siena has been in the tournament a lot recently. That, and I’ve developed a nice healthy hatred for upstate NY recently b/t the MAAC Tournament, Buffalo Sabres ridiculous fans, and the Elliot Spitzer thing. So Siena’s out. That reminds me:)


- The “Peeing over the side of Niagara Falls” rule- Pick teams for the state of New York to win.- Let’s see we’ve got Sienna, and Cornell, and...... wait, that’s FUCKING it? You’re kidding me right? What a disgrace. As always, I blame Mike Jarvis. Well, at least New Jersey got no one in.


Continuing my ‘state’ theme:


- The Bugsy Siegel rule- Pick teams from the states of Nevada and Utah to win their first games. - Hmmm….UNLV always seems to win its first round game. I wonder why? Hmmm….


- The Jane Krivickas- Illinois rule- Find out which STATE has the most schools from it in the tournament. Pick all those schools. A reader suggested this rule after she claimed to fill out her brackets using only schools located in Illinois. This year's winner: California, with UCLA, Cal, Stanford, Southern Cal, St. Marys, San Diego, Cal St-Fullerton, Cal St-Western School of Pork, The Academy of Awards, U. of Cal- by the Ocean, Bayside High, and the rest of the gang.

(Honorable mention this year goes to Indiana, with Purdue, IU, Butler, and Notre Dame, mostly because I say so.)


- The ‘Vegas casinos are built on the backs of suckers’ Rule- Find the popular upset picks, then run from them. A few popular upset picks this year: Sienna over Vanderbilt, Winthrop over Washington St, Western Kentucky over Drake, and….you know what, I refuse to list the last one because I don’t want to see it in print. You figure it out. Anyway, 95% of the people who will pick the lower seeds haven’t seen them play once this year. Why should you listen to them?

(Actually, why should you listen to me? What’s wrong with you? Have you seen my track record? I would have bet money on Gen. Custard if I had the chance.)


-The Pittsburg(h)* Rule- Pick with (insert team). Or against them. Or with them. Or against them. Throughout the years, I have learned that there are some teams just can’t be trusted, no matter how good or bad they are playing. Here are a few teams that will always give you headaches:

• Pittsburg: The new MVP of the list. The best Big East regular season and tournament team of the last few years…and hasn’t made it passed the Sweet 16, even when getting 2 & 3 seeds.

• Arizona: Lose when they should win; win when they should lose.

• Maryland: Never trust the Turtle. You’ll regret it!

• Texas: Can’t be trusted as a high seed.

• UConn: I’ve given up on trying to figure them out. Which is it fellas: are you a powerhouse up and comer, or do you just steal laptops? Pick one…

• Any team coached by Roy Williams: UNC is good, as always, but Roy’s teams do tend to choke when they don’t have 5 NBA-caliber players on them. See recent example: last year vs. Georgetown. Or to quote Roy: I don’t give a shit about North Carolina.

• Purdue: An oldie but a goodie. Anyone else remember backing Big Dog, then crashing and burning?

• Arkansas: Another oldie. Do they ever win tournament games anymore?

• Any team coached by Bobby Knight: Doesn’t apply this year.

• Indiana: *Formerly the Indiana rule, which shows you would bad things have gone for them recent. (First, they lose their lying cheating coach; then their rule in Maydog’s column. I’m sure they’re crying about it.) In my opinion, Indiana is the most completely unpredictable team in the tournament right now. They could either lose their first game by 50 pts, or go all the way to the finals; and frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised either way. Fucking cornboys…

• Gonzaga: I STILL have never picked a Zags games correctly.

•And, as always, two special teams that deserve their own rules this year:


- The Jayhawks Rule: Never pick Kansas. I think I picked Kansas to go to the Final Four every time they were a #1 seed until I finally wised up last year. Proceed with caution when building your brackets around Kansas. You’ve been warned…


And…


- The Posers Rule- Underestimate Duke. Or Don’t Underestimate Duke. Or Underestimate Duke. Which Coach K team will show up this year: the one that wins championships or the only that chokes against UConn, Kansas, Indiana, Michigan State, LSU, and VCU (List gets longer and longer every year)? I never have any idea. Actually, Duke reminds me of something:


- The Duke in ’99 rule-Be very, VERY careful when backing a one loss team A new rule. I’m probably picking Memphis this year, but I also picked the last two teams that entered the tournament with only one loss (St Joe’s in 2004, Duke in 1999). One loss/undefeated territory is rarified air. Just be careful not to suffocate. (Just ask the Patriots. HA!)


The “Gold star” rule- Long tournament drought=Short tournament run Baylor and Clemson just broke long tournament appearance droughts and may see that as enough of an accomplishment. Beware the letdown…


- The George Mason Rule: Always pick teams that ‘didn’t belong in the tournament’ to win their first round game. Lost in the big GM run of 2 years ago was the fact they didn’t deserve a bid in the first place. A little motivation can go a long way. This rule doesn’t really apply this year; the bubble was so crappy, you couldn’t really make a case that someone didn’t deserve to be in. There’s only been minimal discussion of Villanova or Baylor's inclusion anyway. In fact, the team that REALLY didn’t deserve to be in was Georgia, and they won their way in.


-The Haley’s Coment Rule: Try to find ‘the next George Mason.’ Note: I’m intentionally skipping writing about George Mason and Winthrop this year for karma reasons because they scare the crap out of me. Let’s just move on…Run with this one instead:


- The Valpo rule- Mid majors suck and never win. Kent St, Davidson. You have no chance to win and shouldn’t even try.


- The Pinky and All-Brainy Rule- Pick the Ivory League team to win. I do this every year just because Pete Carrill won those games in the mid 90’s, which I picked in my brackets. Go…wait it’s not Penn or Princeton this year, it’s Cornell! Oh the hell with that then… Just pick Stanford.


-The Austin P. rule - Pick a school whose chant it the ultra-cool “Let’s go P./Let’s go P." Self explanatory.


-The 16 years of Catholic School rule - Pick against the Mormons. Later BYU…


The Boston College Rule- Pick against teams you just don’t like. The key to picking correct brackets is to use your head as little as possible. All heart baby… Pick against Southern California because of football rivalries. Pick against Georgetown because you couldn’t get into school there. Pick against Villanova because Jay Wright makes you question your sexuality. Pick against Xavier because the letter ‘X’ confuses and disturbs you.


Wait, I got some more. Pick against Miami because you don’t tan well. Pick against Marquette because you’re lactose intolerant and hate dairy. Pick against Oregon because you hate yellow. Pick against Mississippi State because you can’t spell ‘Mississippi’. Pick against San Diego because you were once bitten by a seal. Pick against Kentucky because they suck (opps, sorry, that's a REAL reason not to pick Kentucky.) Try to find the most inane reason possible that has little to do with basketball, then pick accordingly…


-The Broken Compass rule- Never pick a school with a direction in its name. Western Kentucky, South Alabama. You suck (I have nothing more to add).


-The Oral Roberts rule- Make fun of Oral Roberts in the lamest way possible, like saying “hey, my dentist’s name is Oral Roberts, he he” and think you’re re-inventing comedy. Oh wait, sorry, that’s the EVERY OTHER lame ‘We’re trying to be funny with our picks’ column. I was just filling my quota…


-The St. Joe's in 2004 rule/Memphis in 2006-7 rule- ‘Bad’ Conference Champion=Elite Eight. I’ve been following this line of thinking for a few years now, ever since my St. Joe's Final Four pick in 2004. ‘Upper’ mid-major (Non-BCS: CUSA, A-10, Horizon league) champions that receive high seeds have most people picking against them making the Sweet Sixteen because it’s perceived that they came from a crappy conference. Teams like that ALWAYS surprise you. Consider picking Drake, Xavier, or Butler this year as a test run. (And yes, also consider lighting your money on fire while you’re at it.)


- The “Maydog Inflated Ego” Rule: Try to be a hero/ Duplicate past successes- For two years, between 2005-2006, MAYDOGMA gave you THE correct ridiculous upset pick of the first round, hitting with #14 Bucknell over #3 Kansas in 2005 (which was awesome), & then #13 Northwestern St. over #4 Iowa in 2006 (which was awful because I ignored my own stupid advice and bet money on Iowa). Last year, Miami of Ohio, which had played terribly except for one week, came within 2 points of knocking off Oregon and keeping my streak alive. You’d think I’d stop now that my streak is over, right? RIGHT!?? Of course not! So let’s try to figure out this year’s ridiculous upset pick:


Here are this year’s candidates, in order of elimination:

-Mississippi Valley St over UCLA (too insane)

- UMBC over Georgetown (I’d feel a little vindicated, but this outcome has no chance of happening)

-Cornell over Stanford (Nope)

-Oral Roberts over Pitt (Hmmmm......)

-Boise St. over Louisville (Double Hmmmm......)

-Western Kentucky over Drake (Not big enough upset)

-Winthrop over Washington St. (Also not big enough)

-Second runner up- Belmont over Duke (This can’t possibly happen, right?)

-The runner up- American over Tennessee (I really like Tennessee right now, but there are definitely a few Coppin State / South Carolina parallels going on here.)


And the winner of this year’s ridiculous Maydog upset pick is #14 Cal-State-Fullerton over #3 Wisconsin

I know absolutely nothing about CS-Ful. Nothing. Not even their nickname. You could ask me to guess players on their squad and I’d start with “Joe Smith.” Wisconsin is scorching hot and the only Big Ten team really worth a damn. This pick is beyond ridiculous and makes no sense. You know that that means…. (God, I’m such an idiot…)


So, after reading this column, you could follow my advice and be on your way to the poor house. OR… you could just go in this direction:


-Finally, the Dick Vitale Final Four Picks Rule- Never pick a lower seed to win. Upsets? There are never any upsets!!


Happy picking everyone.

Labels: College Basketball