And now, the contenders. With one exception, I believe any of these 6 teams can win the BET, and, based on the school's overall quality resume, would get the last 2 seed that’s believed to be reserved for the BE Champion.


School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6

Playing for: Needs to ‘right the ship’ slightly after a bad loss to Syracuse; an automatic bid could sent their seed soaring

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 5-6 seed; could be 2-3 seed with a finals appearance

Chance of Winning First Game: 90%

Projected Finish: Lose to Notre Dame, Round 2 (gulp!)

Notes: The first of our title contenders appears. Marquette’s loss to Syracuse kinda killed the momentum that the Golden Eagles had built up the previous few weeks. Fortunately for them, they’re playing Seton Hall first, a perfect opponent for them to destroy and get that momentum back. Marquette is this year’s ‘dangerous’ lower seed in both the BET and the NCAA’s, as they’re talented and ready to take the next step. My head says they could really give ND a brutal game on Thursday (seeing as they beat ND earlier in the year by about 50 pts and didn’t miss a shot all game), so I’m picking with my heart and praying that Marquette doesn’t get a chance to be ‘over-seeded’ based on their win in Wisconsin.



School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 5

Playing for: Only losing to Providence will get cost them a bid; otherwise, not really playing for anything

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 7-10 seed, could be a 6 seed with a title

Chance of Winning First Game: 80%

Projected Finish: Loss to UConn, Round 2.

Notes: Kudos to the Mountaineers for not completely collapsing in what should have been a complete rebuilding year and getting hot at the end to steal the 5 seed from Marquette. WVA is solidly in the NCAA’s right now, but probably shouldn’t mess around with a loss to Providence. However, with the bubble as soft as it is, it would be really hard NOT to include 7 BE teams, so WVA could get in anyway. Their overall profile will make hard it for them to get above an 8-9 game though, so Bob Huggins’s team really will have little to play for after Wednesday.



School: Connecticut

BET Seed: 4

Playing for: Cap off a comeback year with a high seed (that would transform them from ‘sleeper’ to ‘contender’)

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 2 seed with the title, 3 seed with finals run, 4 seed otherwise.

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville, Finals.

Notes: I was on the “UConn is the best team in the Big East and a sleeper Final Four contender” bandwagon for a few months; then they went and inexplicably lose to Providence last week. So as someone planning on picking a long Huskies run, I’m a little frazzled right now (and disappointed, as a 4-5 seeded Connecticut team would have gotten much better odds). UConn (definitely a Top 10 team entering next year) is loaded with young talent right now, including a monster center that will cause all sorts of teams match-up problems in the NCAAs. As for the BET, Jim Calhoun (my pick for BE Coach of the Year) should have his players ready to play behind a largely pro-UConn crowd on Thursday, setting off a run to the finals.



School: Notre Dame

BET Seed: 3

Playing for: Trying to shed an unjust ‘home warrior’ label and win its way into a slightly higher seed.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 2-3 seed with a title; otherwise 4-5 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (gulp!)

Projected Finish: Lose to Louisville, Semi-Finals.

Notes: Sporting 2 All-Big East players, the Irish look to get a big win (or two) at MSG to solidify their status as a Top 4 seed and shed an unfair claim that they can’t win on the road. (FYI, 2008 BE Road Records: GT & LV: 6-3, UConn & ND: 5-4, so it’s not like everyone else was tearing it up away from home.) Unfortunately, the Irish got the hardest draw of all the top teams, starting with a good Marquette team (the only match-up of ranked teams before the semi-finals) and then a Louisville team that’s a bad match-up for the Irish. (Big centers have been Luke Harangody’s kryptonite all season.) (Plus, throw in the historic lack of success Notre Dame has had at MSG.) In particular, the Marquette game is a ‘nothing to gain, something to lose’ game for ND, as a loss may drop them behind Marquette and/or Pitt, while a win isn’t enough to push them past UConn just yet. And while a good showing vs. LV could raise their seed slightly, I belive only a title would get the Irish to the 3 line. Just winning the first game is enough for me; just keep Kyle McAlarney’s threes dropping and Marquette cold, and a run to the semis is possible.


School: Louisville

BET Seed: 2

Playing for: A Top Seed and the label of “Big East team most likely to go the Final Four”

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A finals run may clinch a 2 seed if things break right nationally.

Chance of Winning First Game: 75%

Projected Finish: Champion

Notes: Another team with a monster center that’s ready to wreck havoc. Louisville was scorching hot before losing some stream in a loss at Georgetown that cost them the regular season title. A rematch vs. GT in the finals could be enough to get BOTH teams 2 seeds if things break right nationally. I love how Louisville played this year (though I wish, as with everyone else in the BE, that they had a better OOC victory), and truly think Rick Pitno’s bunch is the class of the league right now. The Cardinals have the talent and the motivation to put together a good run this week to bring them the title and a 2 seed. Whether that will translate to success in the NCAA’s is another matter.


School: Georgetown

BET Seed: 1

Playing for: A 2 seed that would ensure an easier path back to the Final Four

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 3 seed no matter what, 2 seed with title. (And if you’re curious, would need about 8 teams to lose quickly to get 1 seed, no it ain’t happening.)

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%

Projected Finish: Loss to UConn, Semi-Finals.

Notes: Last year’s champion and the 2008 regular season winner, Georgetown looks to make one last run of the Hilbert-Green era before a transition year kicks in. However, while clearly one of the best teams in the BE, Georgetown has beaten NO ONE nationally this year and are something of a paper champion in my opinion. (More on that next week.) After the Hoyas end the tournament hopes of Villanova or Syracuse in Round 2, a semi-final match-up with UConn looms. And while GT is more experienced, they should be locked into a 3 seed by then and only looking to move up one slot. Is that enough to motivate GT, especially in what would essentially be a UConn home game on Friday night? I say no, so the Hoyas will take their 3 seed and rest up for another NCAA run.



So to recap:

Maydogma Predictions for 2008 BET

First Round
West Virginia over Providence
Marquette over Seton Hall
Pitt over Cincinnati
Villanova over Syracuse

Second Round
Georgetown over Villanova
Louisville over Pitt
Notre Dame over Marquette
UConn over West Virginia

Semi-Finals
UConn over Georgetown
Louisville over Notre Dame

Finals
Louisville over UConn


Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the actual tournament plays out.)

Georgetown (3)
Louisville (2)
Notre Dame (5)
UConn (4)
Pitt (7)
Marquette (5)
West Virginia (10)

NIT: Syracuse, Villanova

Labels: College Basketball