Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Maydog vs. March Madness: Version 5
Since the creation of MAYDOGMA five (!) years ago, the only constant has been my annual NCAA column. Writers have come and gone, nations have crumpled, universes have collided…and what still remains is my NCAA column. And hey, my grammar improves with each passing year…
Sure, my fan base is down to maybe 10 people (8 relatives/friends and 2 religious nuts who think I’m some sort of deity). And I’ve made no money from writing. And there’s a good chance that this blog will get less hits this week than some freaky animal porn website where some dudes bang a pig while eating strips of bacon.
Despite all that, I just enjoy writing about the NCAA Tournament every year while getting people to mess up their pools. In 10 years, long after the website’s hosting fees have caused me to file for bankruptcy, I hope to still be writing my NCAA column while intelligent robots enslave the human race, as foretold in so many movies.
This year, as an added challenge, I will try to include ALL 65 tournament teams at least once. That way, I will have talked you out of every team in the field (and even contradicted myself several times). Am I up to this challenge? Of course not; I’ve haven’t posted anything in almost a year. If you seriously follow my advice, well, I got some property in Iraq that I’d like to sell ya…
So, sit back, and enjoy, as MAYDOGMA proudly presents Maydog’s 5th annual guide on “How to lose your office pool as fast as humanly possibly.”
-The Kentucky Rule- Pick the #1 team in the country to win it all. Hey, they’re the best team in the country. The best team ALWAYS wins. Go Florida…
(Wow…I can’t believe I’m going to actually pick Florida to win a few games this year. I don’t think I’ve picked the Gators to win a game in like 5 years. Which may explain my recent lack of success. In fact, I’m gonna spent the rest of the column looking for a GOOD reason not to take Florida…)
(That said, don’t automatically put Florida over Arizona or Maryland, especially given the conference Florida came from. In fact...)
- The Big Ten Rule- Develop a biased opinion against one specific conference. Talk yourself into calling all their teams ‘overrated.’ This year’s conference: The SEC. Other than Florida, none of the SEC’s teams have really impressed me, as evidenced by the next highest ranking being a #5 seed for Tennessee & a #6 seed for Vandy. Kentucky had a ‘so-so’ year. Then Arkansas weaseled its way into the tournament. The SEC was down this year, so I’m using this biased opinion to pick against the SEC.
(Please note: As usual, I DESPERATELY tried to squeeze the Big Ten into the annual “Big Ten Overrated” Spot. But things have changed this year with a new rule…)
- The Jenna Jameson “I’ve been screwed too many times” Big Ten Rule- Never, NEVER, NEVER (!!!!!!) pick a Big Ten team not named Michigan State to win a single game. Last year, I declared my brackets the “Year of the Big Ten” and watched in horror as almost all their teams lost in the first and second round. Fucking Big Ten. So please, proceed with caution when picking either Wisconsin or Ohio St. for the Final Four.
(Note: Michigan State only gets a pass because I’m willing to call last year vs. George Mason a fluke. I still contend that if Texas fielded a starting 5 of Kevin Durante, Lebron James, Moses, James Naismith, and some sort of supernatural wizard, Tom Izzo would still find a way to get past them to the Elite Eight. Now if only I had the guts to pick it this year…)
-The Dick Vitale Final Four Picks Rule- Never pick a lower seed to win. Upsets? There are never any upsets!!
- The Providence in 95/Seton Hall in 97/ Saint John's in 2000/Syracuse in 2006 Rule- Pick a team that ONLY looked good in the Big East tourney, unless they are the dirty hillbillies of West Virginia.- No West Virginia this year, so this rule really doesn’t apply; all the Big East teams that looked good in the Big East tournament looked good during the regular season. That said, I was fully prepared to pick against Louisville last week, so always be weary of the ‘hot’ Big East team.
- The Rose-Colored Glasses Rule- Pick your alma mater to win several games. Trust me, your favorite team ALWAYS makes a run, especially if you pick them.
(After three long years, Notre Dame returns to the NCAAs. Congrats to Coach Brey on proving me wrong this year. And, of course, ND gets to face the fashionable Cinderella-upset-pick-team-that-everyone-called-a-Cinderella-upset-pick-team-three-months-ago Winthrop, thus ensuring 80% of the country picks against ND. Whatever; I’m picking the Irish for the Sweet 16…How’s THAT for a homer pick?)
(As always, there is ONE exception to this rule. If your alma mater is in the tournament, and there’s a good chance they probably won’t be there again for another 20 years, by all means, pick them. I call this the Siena corollary. This year’s team: North Texas.)
- The 'Hey, It could happen' rule- Pick a 16 seed to win.- Florida A&M is a juicy pick right now…Niagara is giving me a warm feeling…Jackson St. is really frisky…Central Connecticut State is screaming “Pick me”… Let me know how this one works out for you guys….Speaking of upsets…
- The ‘Vegas casinos are built on the backs of suckers’ Rule- Find the popular upset picks, then run from them. Two popular upset picks this year: Albany over Virginia, and Oral Roberts over Washington St. Yet 95% of the people who will pick Oral Roberts and Albany haven’t seen them play once this year. Just saying…
-The Indiana Rule- Pick with (insert team). Or against them. Or with them. Or against them. Throughout the years, I have learned that there are some teams just can’t be trusted, no matter how good or bad they are playing. Here are a few teams that will always give you headaches:
• Arizona: Lose when they should win. Win when they should lose. (This year is another great test run. The Wildcats have been up and down all year, and are an 8th seed, which usually mean they’ll win a game or two. If they had been a #2 seed, I’d have picked them for the Final Four, and then watch ‘Zona lose to Bumblefuck State U. in Round 1. )
• Syracuse: Doesn’t apply this year b/c they got screwed. But I really hope Gerry McNamara is enjoy the D-League, I really do.
• Pittsburg: Fast becoming the MVP of this list. Pitt ALWAYS loses in the second round as a high seed. And Wright State just beat Butler too…I’m weary of the Panthers.
• Maryland: Never trust the Turtle. You’ll regret it! Believe me, I was thinking of picking Maryland in the Final Four this year before I remembered all my old Maryland scars…
• Georgia Tech: New one. Is it just me, or does GT always either lose their first game, or go to the finals?
• Any team coached by Roy Williams: I like UNC this year, but Roy’s teams do tend to choke when they don’t have 5 NBA-caliber players on them. Or to quote Roy: I don’t give a shit about North Carolina.
• Any team coached by Bobby Knight: Texas Tech could win 30 straight games and I’d still be nervous because of all the office pool damage Coach Knight caused me in the ‘90’s.
• Indiana: Fucking corn boys…Don’t get me started on that 2002 run…
• Gonzaga: I have NEVER picked a Zags games correctly.
(Holy Crap, I just realized that Indiana is PLAYING Gonzaga in the first round! How the hell did THAT happen? This is like the all time bad karma game. I HAVE to pick one of them?
•And two special teams that deserve their own rules this year:
- The Jayhawks Rule: Never pick Kansas. I think I’ve picked Kansas to go to the Final Four 4 of the last 5 years and they always screw me over. You’ve been warned…
And…
- The Posers Rule- Underestimate Duke. Or Don’t Underestimate Duke. Or Underestimate Duke. Which Coach K team will show up this year: the one that wins championships or the only that chokes against UConn, Kansas, Indiana, Michigan State, & LSU (List keeps getting longer and longer every year?)? I never have any idea. That being said:
- The Moron Rule- Pick Duke to lose in the first round. Look, I hate Duke as much as everyone else. But you’re a complete moron if you’re picking VCU to beat Coach K in the first round. Duke has lost a first round game ONCE in the last 25 years, plus only 4 SECOND ROUND games in that timeframe. This year’s Duke team is not great, but I’m not messing with a streak like that. You can be brave for me…
- The Bugsy Siegel rule- Pick teams from the states of Nevada and Utah to win their first games. - Look, I don’t know if it’s just a coincidence (wink-wink), but I always pick UNLV, Utah, or Nevada to win their first game, and they always seem to come through. Not that I’m accusing anyone of anything. Seriously, it’s all just a coincidence all these teams are near Las Vegas, correct? Please don’t break my legs or anything…
- The Jane Krivickas- Illinois rule- Find out which STATE has the most teams from it in the tournament. Pick all those schools. A reader suggested this rule after she claimed to fill out her brackets using only schools located in Illinois. This year's state: Texas; with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, North Texas, Texas A&M CC, Texas West-Eastern North School Culinary Arts, Norteastern Middle Texas University for Puppeteers, Texas Midwest Southern ABC of D East, and the rest of the gang.
- The George Mason Rule- Always pick teams that ‘didn’t belong in the tournament’ to win their first round game. Look, we all know that Stanford, Illinois, Purdue, & Arkansas are crappy teams that probably didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. But guess what? Those teams are gonna hear all week that they don’t deserve to be in the tournament, which will motivate the hell out of them. Just look at George Mason last year: Lost in the big GM run is the fact they didn’t deserve a bid in the first place. A little motivation can go a long way…Speaking of George Mason:
-The Haley’s Coment Rule- Try to find ‘the next George Mason.’ Guess what folks? Final Four runs by low mid-majors come along once a lifetime. All the experts are falling over themselves to crown ‘the next George Mason.’ Guess what? It’s not gonna happen every year. So stop shoving Creighton, Davidson, Old Dominion, VCU, and especially Winthrop (yes, I know, I’m biased) down our throats as title contenders. That said:
- The Valpo rule- Mid majors suck and never win. HA!
-The UCLA in 96 / Joe Feehan in 2001 Rule- Overrate the defending champion. Again, after years of picking against Florida, I find it physically impossible to pick the Gators, almost like rejecting a bad heart transplant. So I’m ignoring the ‘overrate the defending champion’ rule this year, despite 2007 being the one year when it actually makes sense to pick the defending champion…Dear god, what the hell am I thinking?
- The Pinky and All-Brainy Rule- Pick the Ivory League team to win. I think I do this every year for no reason whatsoever. (Well, mostly because Pete Carrill won those games in the mid 90’s, which I picked in my brackets.) Go Penn!
-The 16 years of Catholic School rule- Never pick a school with the word “State” in its name. Public school is overrated…New Mexico State & Long Beach State: You’re on notice…
-The 16 years of Catholic School rule (Part II)- Pick against the Mormons. Later BYU…
The Boston College Rule- Pick against teams you just don’t like. The key to picking correct brackets is to use your head as little as possible. All heart baby… Pick against USC because of football rivalries. Pick against BC because they tried to wreck the Big East. Pick against Georgetown because you couldn’t get into school there. Pick against George Washington because your great, great grandfather was a Redcoat. Pick against Villanova because Jay Wright makes you question your sexuality. Pick against Xavier because the letter ‘X’ confuses and disturbs you. Pick against Virginia Tech because a rich engineer had sex with your wife. Pick against Marquette because you hate dairy. Try to find the most inane reason that has as little to do with basketball as possible, then pick accordingly…
-The Broken Compass rule- Never pick a school with a direction in its name. Eastern Kentucky, my ass…
-The St. Joe's in 2004 rule/Memphis in 2006 rule- ‘Bad’ Conference Champion=Elite Eight. I’ve been following this line of thinking for a few years now, ever since my St. Joe's Final Four pick in 2004 (which was about 10 seconds away from being inspired). ‘Upper’ mid-major (Non-BCS: CUSA, A-10, Horizon league, maybe the MVC at this point) champions that receive high seeds (like #2 Memphis this year) have most people picking against them making the Sweet Sixteen. Teams like that ALWAYS surprise you. Considering picking Butler and Memphis this year as a test run. (And yes, also consider flushing your money down the toilet while you’re at it.)
-The Otto the Syracuse Orange Rule- Pick the school with the better mascot. If you follow this one, Syracuse would win every year, with Florida as the runner-up…Crap, more reason to pick Florida…
-The Matt Doherty Rule- Pick coaches from your hometown. Long Island is known as the “cradle of coaches,” having produced several top level coaches (Rick Pitino, Jay Wright, Billy Donovan). Should this information sway my decision come tournament time? Damn straight it should. Go Louisville…
- Finally, The “Maydog Inflated Ego” Rule: Try to be a hero/ Duplicate past successes- For two years running, this websitre has given you THE upset pick of the first round, hitting with #14 Bucknell over #3 Kansas in 2005 (which was awesome) & #13 Northwestern St. over #5 Iowa in 2006 (which was awful because I ignored my own stupid advice and bet money on Iowa). With this streak of incredible good luck, you’d think I’d quit while I’m ‘ahead.’ Right? RIGHT!?? Of course not! So let’s try to figure out this year’s gigantic upset pick that no one else sees coming.
Here were this year’s choices, in order of elimination:
-New Mexico State over Texas (too insane)
-Belmont over Georgetown (ditto)
-North Texas over Memphis (kinda like Memphis this year)
-Penn over Texas A&M (no chance)
-Oral Roberts over Washington (too many people picking this one)
-Holy Cross over Southern Illnois (not big enough upset)
-The runner up-Weber St over UCLA (Came DANGEROUSLY close to this one, but can UCLA really lose 3 in a row?)
And the winner of this year’s ridiculous Maydog pick: #14 Miami (OH) over #3 Oregon.
Miami (OH) played maybe TWO good games all season; Oregon was scorching hot at the beginning of the year and will basically be playing a home game Friday. But I’m trying to be a hero here and top myself. This would truly be my greatest pick ever, so let’s how this works out…God, I’m such an idiot…
And while that shocking bit of insanity, let’s get those pencils rolling…
Happy picking everyone.
Sure, my fan base is down to maybe 10 people (8 relatives/friends and 2 religious nuts who think I’m some sort of deity). And I’ve made no money from writing. And there’s a good chance that this blog will get less hits this week than some freaky animal porn website where some dudes bang a pig while eating strips of bacon.
Despite all that, I just enjoy writing about the NCAA Tournament every year while getting people to mess up their pools. In 10 years, long after the website’s hosting fees have caused me to file for bankruptcy, I hope to still be writing my NCAA column while intelligent robots enslave the human race, as foretold in so many movies.
This year, as an added challenge, I will try to include ALL 65 tournament teams at least once. That way, I will have talked you out of every team in the field (and even contradicted myself several times). Am I up to this challenge? Of course not; I’ve haven’t posted anything in almost a year. If you seriously follow my advice, well, I got some property in Iraq that I’d like to sell ya…
So, sit back, and enjoy, as MAYDOGMA proudly presents Maydog’s 5th annual guide on “How to lose your office pool as fast as humanly possibly.”
-The Kentucky Rule- Pick the #1 team in the country to win it all. Hey, they’re the best team in the country. The best team ALWAYS wins. Go Florida…
(Wow…I can’t believe I’m going to actually pick Florida to win a few games this year. I don’t think I’ve picked the Gators to win a game in like 5 years. Which may explain my recent lack of success. In fact, I’m gonna spent the rest of the column looking for a GOOD reason not to take Florida…)
(That said, don’t automatically put Florida over Arizona or Maryland, especially given the conference Florida came from. In fact...)
- The Big Ten Rule- Develop a biased opinion against one specific conference. Talk yourself into calling all their teams ‘overrated.’ This year’s conference: The SEC. Other than Florida, none of the SEC’s teams have really impressed me, as evidenced by the next highest ranking being a #5 seed for Tennessee & a #6 seed for Vandy. Kentucky had a ‘so-so’ year. Then Arkansas weaseled its way into the tournament. The SEC was down this year, so I’m using this biased opinion to pick against the SEC.
(Please note: As usual, I DESPERATELY tried to squeeze the Big Ten into the annual “Big Ten Overrated” Spot. But things have changed this year with a new rule…)
- The Jenna Jameson “I’ve been screwed too many times” Big Ten Rule- Never, NEVER, NEVER (!!!!!!) pick a Big Ten team not named Michigan State to win a single game. Last year, I declared my brackets the “Year of the Big Ten” and watched in horror as almost all their teams lost in the first and second round. Fucking Big Ten. So please, proceed with caution when picking either Wisconsin or Ohio St. for the Final Four.
(Note: Michigan State only gets a pass because I’m willing to call last year vs. George Mason a fluke. I still contend that if Texas fielded a starting 5 of Kevin Durante, Lebron James, Moses, James Naismith, and some sort of supernatural wizard, Tom Izzo would still find a way to get past them to the Elite Eight. Now if only I had the guts to pick it this year…)
-The Dick Vitale Final Four Picks Rule- Never pick a lower seed to win. Upsets? There are never any upsets!!
- The Providence in 95/Seton Hall in 97/ Saint John's in 2000/Syracuse in 2006 Rule- Pick a team that ONLY looked good in the Big East tourney, unless they are the dirty hillbillies of West Virginia.- No West Virginia this year, so this rule really doesn’t apply; all the Big East teams that looked good in the Big East tournament looked good during the regular season. That said, I was fully prepared to pick against Louisville last week, so always be weary of the ‘hot’ Big East team.
- The Rose-Colored Glasses Rule- Pick your alma mater to win several games. Trust me, your favorite team ALWAYS makes a run, especially if you pick them.
(After three long years, Notre Dame returns to the NCAAs. Congrats to Coach Brey on proving me wrong this year. And, of course, ND gets to face the fashionable Cinderella-upset-pick-team-that-everyone-called-a-Cinderella-upset-pick-team-three-months-ago Winthrop, thus ensuring 80% of the country picks against ND. Whatever; I’m picking the Irish for the Sweet 16…How’s THAT for a homer pick?)
(As always, there is ONE exception to this rule. If your alma mater is in the tournament, and there’s a good chance they probably won’t be there again for another 20 years, by all means, pick them. I call this the Siena corollary. This year’s team: North Texas.)
- The 'Hey, It could happen' rule- Pick a 16 seed to win.- Florida A&M is a juicy pick right now…Niagara is giving me a warm feeling…Jackson St. is really frisky…Central Connecticut State is screaming “Pick me”… Let me know how this one works out for you guys….Speaking of upsets…
- The ‘Vegas casinos are built on the backs of suckers’ Rule- Find the popular upset picks, then run from them. Two popular upset picks this year: Albany over Virginia, and Oral Roberts over Washington St. Yet 95% of the people who will pick Oral Roberts and Albany haven’t seen them play once this year. Just saying…
-The Indiana Rule- Pick with (insert team). Or against them. Or with them. Or against them. Throughout the years, I have learned that there are some teams just can’t be trusted, no matter how good or bad they are playing. Here are a few teams that will always give you headaches:
• Arizona: Lose when they should win. Win when they should lose. (This year is another great test run. The Wildcats have been up and down all year, and are an 8th seed, which usually mean they’ll win a game or two. If they had been a #2 seed, I’d have picked them for the Final Four, and then watch ‘Zona lose to Bumblefuck State U. in Round 1. )
• Syracuse: Doesn’t apply this year b/c they got screwed. But I really hope Gerry McNamara is enjoy the D-League, I really do.
• Pittsburg: Fast becoming the MVP of this list. Pitt ALWAYS loses in the second round as a high seed. And Wright State just beat Butler too…I’m weary of the Panthers.
• Maryland: Never trust the Turtle. You’ll regret it! Believe me, I was thinking of picking Maryland in the Final Four this year before I remembered all my old Maryland scars…
• Georgia Tech: New one. Is it just me, or does GT always either lose their first game, or go to the finals?
• Any team coached by Roy Williams: I like UNC this year, but Roy’s teams do tend to choke when they don’t have 5 NBA-caliber players on them. Or to quote Roy: I don’t give a shit about North Carolina.
• Any team coached by Bobby Knight: Texas Tech could win 30 straight games and I’d still be nervous because of all the office pool damage Coach Knight caused me in the ‘90’s.
• Indiana: Fucking corn boys…Don’t get me started on that 2002 run…
• Gonzaga: I have NEVER picked a Zags games correctly.
(Holy Crap, I just realized that Indiana is PLAYING Gonzaga in the first round! How the hell did THAT happen? This is like the all time bad karma game. I HAVE to pick one of them?
•And two special teams that deserve their own rules this year:
- The Jayhawks Rule: Never pick Kansas. I think I’ve picked Kansas to go to the Final Four 4 of the last 5 years and they always screw me over. You’ve been warned…
And…
- The Posers Rule- Underestimate Duke. Or Don’t Underestimate Duke. Or Underestimate Duke. Which Coach K team will show up this year: the one that wins championships or the only that chokes against UConn, Kansas, Indiana, Michigan State, & LSU (List keeps getting longer and longer every year?)? I never have any idea. That being said:
- The Moron Rule- Pick Duke to lose in the first round. Look, I hate Duke as much as everyone else. But you’re a complete moron if you’re picking VCU to beat Coach K in the first round. Duke has lost a first round game ONCE in the last 25 years, plus only 4 SECOND ROUND games in that timeframe. This year’s Duke team is not great, but I’m not messing with a streak like that. You can be brave for me…
- The Bugsy Siegel rule- Pick teams from the states of Nevada and Utah to win their first games. - Look, I don’t know if it’s just a coincidence (wink-wink), but I always pick UNLV, Utah, or Nevada to win their first game, and they always seem to come through. Not that I’m accusing anyone of anything. Seriously, it’s all just a coincidence all these teams are near Las Vegas, correct? Please don’t break my legs or anything…
- The Jane Krivickas- Illinois rule- Find out which STATE has the most teams from it in the tournament. Pick all those schools. A reader suggested this rule after she claimed to fill out her brackets using only schools located in Illinois. This year's state: Texas; with Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, North Texas, Texas A&M CC, Texas West-Eastern North School Culinary Arts, Norteastern Middle Texas University for Puppeteers, Texas Midwest Southern ABC of D East, and the rest of the gang.
- The George Mason Rule- Always pick teams that ‘didn’t belong in the tournament’ to win their first round game. Look, we all know that Stanford, Illinois, Purdue, & Arkansas are crappy teams that probably didn’t deserve to be in the tournament. But guess what? Those teams are gonna hear all week that they don’t deserve to be in the tournament, which will motivate the hell out of them. Just look at George Mason last year: Lost in the big GM run is the fact they didn’t deserve a bid in the first place. A little motivation can go a long way…Speaking of George Mason:
-The Haley’s Coment Rule- Try to find ‘the next George Mason.’ Guess what folks? Final Four runs by low mid-majors come along once a lifetime. All the experts are falling over themselves to crown ‘the next George Mason.’ Guess what? It’s not gonna happen every year. So stop shoving Creighton, Davidson, Old Dominion, VCU, and especially Winthrop (yes, I know, I’m biased) down our throats as title contenders. That said:
- The Valpo rule- Mid majors suck and never win. HA!
-The UCLA in 96 / Joe Feehan in 2001 Rule- Overrate the defending champion. Again, after years of picking against Florida, I find it physically impossible to pick the Gators, almost like rejecting a bad heart transplant. So I’m ignoring the ‘overrate the defending champion’ rule this year, despite 2007 being the one year when it actually makes sense to pick the defending champion…Dear god, what the hell am I thinking?
- The Pinky and All-Brainy Rule- Pick the Ivory League team to win. I think I do this every year for no reason whatsoever. (Well, mostly because Pete Carrill won those games in the mid 90’s, which I picked in my brackets.) Go Penn!
-The 16 years of Catholic School rule- Never pick a school with the word “State” in its name. Public school is overrated…New Mexico State & Long Beach State: You’re on notice…
-The 16 years of Catholic School rule (Part II)- Pick against the Mormons. Later BYU…
The Boston College Rule- Pick against teams you just don’t like. The key to picking correct brackets is to use your head as little as possible. All heart baby… Pick against USC because of football rivalries. Pick against BC because they tried to wreck the Big East. Pick against Georgetown because you couldn’t get into school there. Pick against George Washington because your great, great grandfather was a Redcoat. Pick against Villanova because Jay Wright makes you question your sexuality. Pick against Xavier because the letter ‘X’ confuses and disturbs you. Pick against Virginia Tech because a rich engineer had sex with your wife. Pick against Marquette because you hate dairy. Try to find the most inane reason that has as little to do with basketball as possible, then pick accordingly…
-The Broken Compass rule- Never pick a school with a direction in its name. Eastern Kentucky, my ass…
-The St. Joe's in 2004 rule/Memphis in 2006 rule- ‘Bad’ Conference Champion=Elite Eight. I’ve been following this line of thinking for a few years now, ever since my St. Joe's Final Four pick in 2004 (which was about 10 seconds away from being inspired). ‘Upper’ mid-major (Non-BCS: CUSA, A-10, Horizon league, maybe the MVC at this point) champions that receive high seeds (like #2 Memphis this year) have most people picking against them making the Sweet Sixteen. Teams like that ALWAYS surprise you. Considering picking Butler and Memphis this year as a test run. (And yes, also consider flushing your money down the toilet while you’re at it.)
-The Otto the Syracuse Orange Rule- Pick the school with the better mascot. If you follow this one, Syracuse would win every year, with Florida as the runner-up…Crap, more reason to pick Florida…
-The Matt Doherty Rule- Pick coaches from your hometown. Long Island is known as the “cradle of coaches,” having produced several top level coaches (Rick Pitino, Jay Wright, Billy Donovan). Should this information sway my decision come tournament time? Damn straight it should. Go Louisville…
- Finally, The “Maydog Inflated Ego” Rule: Try to be a hero/ Duplicate past successes- For two years running, this websitre has given you THE upset pick of the first round, hitting with #14 Bucknell over #3 Kansas in 2005 (which was awesome) & #13 Northwestern St. over #5 Iowa in 2006 (which was awful because I ignored my own stupid advice and bet money on Iowa). With this streak of incredible good luck, you’d think I’d quit while I’m ‘ahead.’ Right? RIGHT!?? Of course not! So let’s try to figure out this year’s gigantic upset pick that no one else sees coming.
Here were this year’s choices, in order of elimination:
-New Mexico State over Texas (too insane)
-Belmont over Georgetown (ditto)
-North Texas over Memphis (kinda like Memphis this year)
-Penn over Texas A&M (no chance)
-Oral Roberts over Washington (too many people picking this one)
-Holy Cross over Southern Illnois (not big enough upset)
-The runner up-Weber St over UCLA (Came DANGEROUSLY close to this one, but can UCLA really lose 3 in a row?)
And the winner of this year’s ridiculous Maydog pick: #14 Miami (OH) over #3 Oregon.
Miami (OH) played maybe TWO good games all season; Oregon was scorching hot at the beginning of the year and will basically be playing a home game Friday. But I’m trying to be a hero here and top myself. This would truly be my greatest pick ever, so let’s how this works out…God, I’m such an idiot…
And while that shocking bit of insanity, let’s get those pencils rolling…
Happy picking everyone.
Labels: College Basketball
Comments and Plug
Holy Crap, a comment:
Thought you might like to know my mother sited your blog as one her places to go in order to help her make her bracket choices. She refered to you as a "sports authority" but did mention you had it wrong with the Orangemen. -Jane
Wow...I've never been called an authority on anything. I'm honored
And while I'm here, I need to plug the ND Basketball Blog, who had plugged my BE article last. Black&green (whose real name I don't know) does a real good job breaking down Notre Dame Basketball.
http://ndbasketball.blogspot.com
Coming later today: My 5th Annual March Madness column
Thought you might like to know my mother sited your blog as one her places to go in order to help her make her bracket choices. She refered to you as a "sports authority" but did mention you had it wrong with the Orangemen. -Jane
Wow...I've never been called an authority on anything. I'm honored
And while I'm here, I need to plug the ND Basketball Blog, who had plugged my BE article last. Black&green (whose real name I don't know) does a real good job breaking down Notre Dame Basketball.
http://ndbasketball.blogspot.com
Coming later today: My 5th Annual March Madness column
Labels: College Basketball
Tuesday, March 13, 2007
Disrespect...Damn I hate being like that
You know, it's just starting to dawn on me how pissed off I am at this Winthrop phenomenon. Didn't everyone SEE Notre Dame play on Friday vs. Georgetown? You're telling me EVERYONE is just picking against Notre Dame because "I really like Winthrop" & "the Next George Mason" crap...Please...This is typical ND Haters bullshit...Throw in the ridiculously low point spread (ND was -2.5 this morning) and I'm really starting to build up a nice hatred of the Eagles...Friday's game is for blood...
Labels: College Basketball
2007 NIT Picks
I give you my NIT picks, which I've been doing for the third straight for my own pervese reasons. You may remember last year when I picked U. of South Carolina to win the whole thing and they actually won. That pick probably rates as a Top 5 gambling moment for me, which is depressing on so many levels.
This also marks the first time in 3 years that Notre Dame is NOT in the NIT, thus ensuing I won't watch a single game of the NIT...And frankly, I couldn't be happier...
This year's field is FILLED with teams that felt they deserved to make the Big Tournament, and those teams are never motivated enough to win, so the picks are wildly unpredictable. So that was my strategy again: Pick against 'bubble teams' and pick for teams that might actually enjoy winnning the NIT.
http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/sports/m-nit/auto_pdf/2007-Bracket
The picks:
First Round: Miss St, Bradley, Michigan, Floroda St., West Virginia, Alabama, Drexel, Oklahoma State, Austin Peay (AF could care less), Georgia, Depaul (Hofstra was so unmotivated this year), Vermont (Ditto Bob Huggins), Clemson, Ole Miss, Missouri St, South Alabama (Do you really think Syracuse even wants to play this game?)
Second Round: Miss St, Michigan, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Depaul, Ole Miss, Missouri St
Final Four: Michigan (Go for you Michigan, back-to-back Final Fours, get excited :)), Oklahoma State, Depaul, Missouri St
Finals: Oklahoma State, Depaul-winner
This also marks the first time in 3 years that Notre Dame is NOT in the NIT, thus ensuing I won't watch a single game of the NIT...And frankly, I couldn't be happier...
This year's field is FILLED with teams that felt they deserved to make the Big Tournament, and those teams are never motivated enough to win, so the picks are wildly unpredictable. So that was my strategy again: Pick against 'bubble teams' and pick for teams that might actually enjoy winnning the NIT.
http://www.cstv.com/auto_pdf/p_hotos/s_chools/nit/sports/m-nit/auto_pdf/2007-Bracket
The picks:
First Round: Miss St, Bradley, Michigan, Floroda St., West Virginia, Alabama, Drexel, Oklahoma State, Austin Peay (AF could care less), Georgia, Depaul (Hofstra was so unmotivated this year), Vermont (Ditto Bob Huggins), Clemson, Ole Miss, Missouri St, South Alabama (Do you really think Syracuse even wants to play this game?)
Second Round: Miss St, Michigan, West Virginia, Oklahoma State, Georgia, Depaul, Ole Miss, Missouri St
Final Four: Michigan (Go for you Michigan, back-to-back Final Fours, get excited :)), Oklahoma State, Depaul, Missouri St
Finals: Oklahoma State, Depaul-winner
Labels: College Basketball
Monday, March 12, 2007
Yay...Content
Well, everyone's complaining about the selection committee, which happens everything. Normally, I'd call this 'complaining for complaining's sake.' I mean, everyone has gripes EVERY SINGLE YEAR. If Drexel and Kansas State had made it instead of Purdue and Illinois, the analyst would probably be going "3 teams from the CAA? Ridiculous!" or "K State didn't deserve it over Purdue." The 'experts' need to talk about something for 3 days before the tournament starts.
That said, the fact Syracuse didn't make it is an absolute disgrace. I've been racking my brain trying to pinpoint the exact reason, and frankly I can't find it.
Oh and Go Notre Dame...
That said, the fact Syracuse didn't make it is an absolute disgrace. I've been racking my brain trying to pinpoint the exact reason, and frankly I can't find it.
Oh and Go Notre Dame...
Labels: College Basketball
Saturday, March 10, 2007
Big East NCAA Bid and Seeding
As promised, a quick update on where I think all the Big East teams will be Seeded by the NCAA Tournament Committee:
Georgetown- #2 seed
Pittsburg- #3 seed
Louisville- #4 seed
Notre Dame- #5 seed
Marquette- #5 seed
Villanova- #7 seed
Syracuse- #9 seed
West Virginia- #11 seed
NIT- Depaul, Providence (and that's it, call it a hunch)
Georgetown- #2 seed
Pittsburg- #3 seed
Louisville- #4 seed
Notre Dame- #5 seed
Marquette- #5 seed
Villanova- #7 seed
Syracuse- #9 seed
West Virginia- #11 seed
NIT- Depaul, Providence (and that's it, call it a hunch)
Labels: College Basketball
Tuesday, March 06, 2007
Beast from the Big East- Part 2
Continuing with yesterday’s post previewing the Big East Tournament…
One comment on yesterday’s post: My brother called me out on UConn’s NCAA seeding if they won the BET, claiming that there is no way UConn would be a low seed (11-12) based on reputation alone. And after thinking about it, I’m inclined to agree. Like it or not, there are some programs who, at this point, are ‘immune’ to the lower seeds, no matter how bad it’s regular season was. Just like there is no way that automatic bid, sub-par Duke team would ever be a 10 seed, there is no way Connecticut would ever be a 12 seed. The most recent example I could think of was when North Carolina was an 8 (9?) seed in 1999 with an 18-12 record.
So I stand corrected: If Jim Calhoun wins the Big East’s automatic bid, UConn will be at least a 9 seed. I hope that comforts them when they get plastered tomorrow…
Onto the Top Seeds:
School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6
Playing for: Chance to be a Protected Seed, ‘home games’ in Chicago in first two rounds
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #4 seed with a title, #5 in Finals, #6-7 otherwise, #8-9 with an awful loss to depleted SJU.
Chance of Winning First Game: 99.9999999% (Percentage Updated based on the news of Hamilton’s injury.)
Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in semifinals round.
Notes: The Golden Eagles, after a big started, ‘collapsed’ late and cost themselves a bye. Fortunately, SJU beat Providence Sunday to give Marquette a bye anyway. Marquette is playing for seeding now, and could become a top 16 team with the trip to the Finals. An upset of Pitt in round 2 would be a huge start to that goal.
School: Syracuse
BET Seed: 5
Playing for: Beating UConn should, SHOULD get them into the NCAAs; a loss makes it dicey.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Deep Run= #6 seed, Probably in the 7-9 range otherwise
Chance of Winning First Game: 60%
Projected Finish: Loss to Notre Dame in 2nd round. (Gulp.)
Notes: A ho-hum out of conference schedule with no signature wins means Syracuse needs to beat UConn to feel safe. A loss and they will be nervous up until the last minute Sunday. Personally, I think this team is awful and got 10 win this year with smoke and mirrors, but WAY too many people think UConn’s winning tomorrow. (Of course, I thought the same thing about them LAST year, so I fully prepared for anything.) Syracuse should be able to stay in the BET long enough to get a bid to the Big Dance. Rooting against WVA would also help.
School: Notre Dame
BET Seed: 4
Playing for: Cap off an exciting comeback year with a Top 8 seed.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Could be anything from a #5 seed to a #8 seed.
Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (Early prediction: The gambling line for Thursday’s game vs. UConn/Syracuse will be ridiculously low.)
Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in Semi-Finals.
Notes: No team will be more rested than the Irish going into Thursday’s game, having only played 1 game in the last 10 days. Notre Dame is pretty much locked into it’s seeding range; even a BE title is unlikely to get them a #4 seed. Wining the first game is enough for me to be happy. (One wildcard: Notre Dame always, ALWAYS plays awful at MSG, no matter who the opponent. And the Irish will be the ‘visiting team’ vs. either opponent on Thursday. So beware…)
School: Pittsburg
BET Seed: 3
Playing for: Need to right the ship after some late season losses dropped them behind Georgetown.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #3 seed for getting to finals, #4 seed otherwise.
Chance of Winning First Game: 45%
Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round.
Notes: Pittsburg went from title contender/#1 seed to ‘another decent team’ in a matter of weeks. Personally, I think Pitt is the one of the most overrated programs in the last few years (always ranked high, they never win in the tournament), so seeing them on as a #3-4 seed instead of a #2 seed will only help come gambling pool time. I never trust Pitt to win games they’re supposed to, so I’ll take a hot Louisville team to upset them on Thursday.
School: Louisville
BET Seed: 2
Playing for: the right to be over-seeded by the committee.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A title should make the Cardinals a #3 seed; Otherwise, will be a #4 seed.
Chance of Winning First Game: 65%
Projected Finish: Big East Title.
Notes: Led by my pick for BE Coach of the Year (Rick Pitino), Louisville is the hottest team heading into New York, having won six in a row and stealing the #2 seed from Pitt. I’m predicting Pitino takes his overachievers to the Big East automatic bid, a shocking #3 NCAA seed….and a first round exit at the hands of some midmajor upstart, continuing the ‘overseeding curse.’
School: Georgetown
BET Seed: 1
Playing for: an outside chance at a #1 seed if other national contenders fall
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: One win guarantees a 2 seed (in my opinion)
Chance of Winning First Game: 50%
Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in second round.
Notes: Clearly the class of the league this year, and barring any huge National upset, Georgetown is basically playing to move up from a #3 seed to a #2 seed. Is that enough to motivate the Hoyas? I don’t think so…That said, an extra week off could really help Georgetown prepare for a Final Four run. So losing Thursday may be a ‘good’ thing.
So to recap:
Maydogma Predictions for BET
First Round
Syracuse over UConn
Villanova over Depaul
Marquette over SJU
WVA over Providence
Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA
Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA
Semi-Finals
Villanova over Notre Dame
Louisville over Marquette
Finals
Louisville over Villanova
Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)
(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the tournament plays out.)
Pitt (4)
Georgetown (3)
Louisville (3)
Notre Dame (6)
Marquette (5)
Villanova (5)
Syracuse (7)
West Virginia (11)
One comment on yesterday’s post: My brother called me out on UConn’s NCAA seeding if they won the BET, claiming that there is no way UConn would be a low seed (11-12) based on reputation alone. And after thinking about it, I’m inclined to agree. Like it or not, there are some programs who, at this point, are ‘immune’ to the lower seeds, no matter how bad it’s regular season was. Just like there is no way that automatic bid, sub-par Duke team would ever be a 10 seed, there is no way Connecticut would ever be a 12 seed. The most recent example I could think of was when North Carolina was an 8 (9?) seed in 1999 with an 18-12 record.
So I stand corrected: If Jim Calhoun wins the Big East’s automatic bid, UConn will be at least a 9 seed. I hope that comforts them when they get plastered tomorrow…
Onto the Top Seeds:
School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6
Playing for: Chance to be a Protected Seed, ‘home games’ in Chicago in first two rounds
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #4 seed with a title, #5 in Finals, #6-7 otherwise, #8-9 with an awful loss to depleted SJU.
Chance of Winning First Game: 99.9999999% (Percentage Updated based on the news of Hamilton’s injury.)
Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in semifinals round.
Notes: The Golden Eagles, after a big started, ‘collapsed’ late and cost themselves a bye. Fortunately, SJU beat Providence Sunday to give Marquette a bye anyway.
School: Syracuse
BET Seed: 5
Playing for: Beating UConn should, SHOULD get them into the NCAAs; a loss makes it dicey.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Deep Run= #6 seed, Probably in the 7-9 range otherwise
Chance of Winning First Game: 60%
Projected Finish: Loss to Notre Dame in 2nd round. (Gulp.)
Notes: A ho-hum out of conference schedule with no signature wins means Syracuse needs to beat UConn to feel safe. A loss and they will be nervous up until the last minute Sunday. Personally, I think this team is awful and got 10 win this year with smoke and mirrors, but WAY too many people think UConn’s winning tomorrow. (Of course, I thought the same thing about them LAST year, so I fully prepared for anything.) Syracuse should be able to stay in the BET long enough to get a bid to the Big Dance. Rooting against WVA would also help.
School: Notre Dame
BET Seed: 4
Playing for: Cap off an exciting comeback year with a Top 8 seed.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Could be anything from a #5 seed to a #8 seed.
Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (Early prediction: The gambling line for Thursday’s game vs. UConn/Syracuse will be ridiculously low.)
Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in Semi-Finals.
Notes: No team will be more rested than the Irish going into Thursday’s game, having only played 1 game in the last 10 days. Notre Dame is pretty much locked into it’s seeding range; even a BE title is unlikely to get them a #4 seed. Wining the first game is enough for me to be happy. (One wildcard: Notre Dame always, ALWAYS plays awful at MSG, no matter who the opponent. And the Irish will be the ‘visiting team’ vs. either opponent on Thursday. So beware…)
School: Pittsburg
BET Seed: 3
Playing for: Need to right the ship after some late season losses dropped them behind Georgetown.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #3 seed for getting to finals, #4 seed otherwise.
Chance of Winning First Game: 45%
Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round.
Notes: Pittsburg went from title contender/#1 seed to ‘another decent team’ in a matter of weeks. Personally, I think Pitt is the one of the most overrated programs in the last few years (always ranked high, they never win in the tournament), so seeing them on as a #3-4 seed instead of a #2 seed will only help come gambling pool time. I never trust Pitt to win games they’re supposed to, so I’ll take a hot Louisville team to upset them on Thursday.
School: Louisville
BET Seed: 2
Playing for: the right to be over-seeded by the committee.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A title should make the Cardinals a #3 seed; Otherwise, will be a #4 seed.
Chance of Winning First Game: 65%
Projected Finish: Big East Title.
Notes: Led by my pick for BE Coach of the Year (Rick Pitino), Louisville is the hottest team heading into New York, having won six in a row and stealing the #2 seed from Pitt. I’m predicting Pitino takes his overachievers to the Big East automatic bid, a shocking #3 NCAA seed….and a first round exit at the hands of some midmajor upstart, continuing the ‘overseeding curse.’
School: Georgetown
BET Seed: 1
Playing for: an outside chance at a #1 seed if other national contenders fall
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: One win guarantees a 2 seed (in my opinion)
Chance of Winning First Game: 50%
Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in second round.
Notes: Clearly the class of the league this year, and barring any huge National upset, Georgetown is basically playing to move up from a #3 seed to a #2 seed. Is that enough to motivate the Hoyas? I don’t think so…That said, an extra week off could really help Georgetown prepare for a Final Four run. So losing Thursday may be a ‘good’ thing.
So to recap:
Maydogma Predictions for BET
First Round
Syracuse over UConn
Villanova over Depaul
Marquette over SJU
WVA over Providence
Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA
Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA
Semi-Finals
Villanova over Notre Dame
Louisville over Marquette
Finals
Louisville over Villanova
Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)
(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the tournament plays out.)
Pitt (4)
Georgetown (3)
Louisville (3)
Notre Dame (6)
Marquette (5)
Villanova (5)
Syracuse (7)
West Virginia (11)
Labels: College Basketball
Monday, March 05, 2007
Beast from the Big East- Part 1
Seeing as it’s my favorite conference tournament, I figured I’d give quick previews & predictions for the Big East tournament and what each team is playing for this week.
This year has been a so-so year for the Big East, especially following last year’s ‘first year of the expansion, two #1 seeds’ regular season. This was expected to be a rebuilding year considering the massive talent exoduses at both UConn and Villanova (and to lesser degrees, Syracuse and West Virginia.) While the top 5-7 are all solid, every team has some glaring flaws and, with the exception of Georgetown, no one looks primed for a massive run to the Final Four this year. It is just as liekly that 4-5 teams will lose in the first round to an upstart midmajor as there is of 4-5 teams making the Sweet 16. Predicting this year’s tournament is harder than ever, especially with ‘live’ lower seeds in Villanova (#9), Providence (#10), and even UConn (#12).
Keep in mind that each team is playing for a wide range of NCAA seeds this year, and the winner of the BET is always, ALWAYS ‘over-seeded’ by the committee based on their tournament win. Look no further than last year’s Syracuse team, who went from a bubble team to NCAA 5-seed overnight.
Plus, beware teams that catch fire just for the BET. With one notable exception (WVA in 2005), Teams that only look good in the Big East Tournament usually crap out quickly in the Big Dance (Providence in ‘95, Seton Hall in ’97, Saint John’s in ’01, Syracuse in ’06.)
Today, I’ll start with the bottom 6 seed, followed tomorrow by the Top 6 and full predictions.
School: Connecticut
BET Seed: 12
Playing for: ‘Super-sleeper’ pick to win tournament; most likely a home game in the NIT
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-12 seed
Chance of Winning First Game: 40%
Projected Finish: Loss to Syracuse.
Notes: I guess UConn deserves to have a rebuilding year every now and then (of course, it comes the one year they don’t play Notre Dame). That said, WAY too many people are picking UConn to beat Syracuse Wednesday, which is a huge red flag to me. Enjoy the NIT; it’s about time.
School: Saint Johns
BET Seed: 11
Playing for: Just happy to be back in the BET, which a disgrace. Good job, Uncle Phil; Home game in the NIT
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed
Chance of Winning First Game: 2% (and even this seems high)
Projected Finish: Loss to Maquette.
Notes: Having already ‘clinched’ an NIT with their win over Providence, SJU has little left to play for and it pretty much overmatched vs. Marquette (terrible match-up for them). Keeping it close in front of the home crowd at MSG would be a nice accomplishment.
School: Providence
BET Seed: 10
Playing for: Kinda/Sorta a bubble team, needs at least two wins to even little about an NCAA bid and even that probably isn’t enough.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 10-12 seed, need to win BET for Bid
Chance of Winning First Game: 50%
Projected Finish: Loss to WVA.
Notes: One player of the year candidate, plus maybe a decent pro-Friar crowd Wednesday night (most of whom will be there for Saint Johns) could help Providence win one game. But second round vs. hot Louisville should send Friars to the NIT.
School: Villanova
BET Seed: 9
Playing for: A chance to be over-seeded in the NCAA’s.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Winning BET could vault Nova to a 5 seed, winning 1-2 games probably put them in the 6-9 range.
Chance of Winning First Game: 70%
Projected Finish: Loss in Finals to Louisville.
Notes: I guess this kinda gives away where I’m going with my predictions. Villanova is a sleeping giant that could, COULD catch fire this week and be this year’s Syracuse, with great out of conference numbers and that win over Texas. The draw they got (Depaul, then Georgetown with little to play for (who they also beat)) helps a lot.
School: Depaul
BET Seed: 8
Playing for: Another fringe NCAA bubble team; at least two wins are needed to make a case.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 8-10 seed, need to win BET for Bid
Chance of Winning First Game: 30% (and even this seems high)
Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova.
Notes: Could two wins by DePaul get them in the tournament, especially with that early season victory over Kansas? I say yes, depending on how WVA, Syracuse, & other bubble teams fare. That said, I think they got a bad matchup with Villanova, so it looks like an NIT bid (with a decent chance of winning the NIT actually) is in the cards
School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 7
Playing for: Firmly on the bubble, with a win over UCLA the only thing keeping them in the discussion.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed, winning tournament could make them a 7 seed on reputation.
Chance of Winning First Game: 50%
Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round..
Notes: A rebuilding year for the Mountaineers after their big run two years ago (of which I hated every minute, and screwed me out of money at every turn. God, I hate these hicks. I hate them. Thanks for throwing fruit at me, you jerks. Please lose. No one likes you expect the gap-toothed freaks wearing their Pittsnoggle jerseys and…hey now, am I typing still? Thought I was just thinking that…Um, ok, back to being objective…). That first round game vs. Providence basically an NCAA elimination game, so, begrudgingly, I’ll assume that WVA gets off the bubble with a win.
Tomorrow: The top 6, and full predictions
This year has been a so-so year for the Big East, especially following last year’s ‘first year of the expansion, two #1 seeds’ regular season. This was expected to be a rebuilding year considering the massive talent exoduses at both UConn and Villanova (and to lesser degrees, Syracuse and West Virginia.) While the top 5-7 are all solid, every team has some glaring flaws and, with the exception of Georgetown, no one looks primed for a massive run to the Final Four this year. It is just as liekly that 4-5 teams will lose in the first round to an upstart midmajor as there is of 4-5 teams making the Sweet 16. Predicting this year’s tournament is harder than ever, especially with ‘live’ lower seeds in Villanova (#9), Providence (#10), and even UConn (#12).
Keep in mind that each team is playing for a wide range of NCAA seeds this year, and the winner of the BET is always, ALWAYS ‘over-seeded’ by the committee based on their tournament win. Look no further than last year’s Syracuse team, who went from a bubble team to NCAA 5-seed overnight.
Plus, beware teams that catch fire just for the BET. With one notable exception (WVA in 2005), Teams that only look good in the Big East Tournament usually crap out quickly in the Big Dance (Providence in ‘95, Seton Hall in ’97, Saint John’s in ’01, Syracuse in ’06.)
Today, I’ll start with the bottom 6 seed, followed tomorrow by the Top 6 and full predictions.
School: Connecticut
BET Seed: 12
Playing for: ‘Super-sleeper’ pick to win tournament; most likely a home game in the NIT
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-12 seed
Chance of Winning First Game: 40%
Projected Finish: Loss to Syracuse.
Notes: I guess UConn deserves to have a rebuilding year every now and then (of course, it comes the one year they don’t play Notre Dame). That said, WAY too many people are picking UConn to beat Syracuse Wednesday, which is a huge red flag to me. Enjoy the NIT; it’s about time.
School: Saint Johns
BET Seed: 11
Playing for: Just happy to be back in the BET, which a disgrace. Good job, Uncle Phil; Home game in the NIT
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed
Chance of Winning First Game: 2% (and even this seems high)
Projected Finish: Loss to Maquette.
Notes: Having already ‘clinched’ an NIT with their win over Providence, SJU has little left to play for and it pretty much overmatched vs. Marquette (terrible match-up for them). Keeping it close in front of the home crowd at MSG would be a nice accomplishment.
School: Providence
BET Seed: 10
Playing for: Kinda/Sorta a bubble team, needs at least two wins to even little about an NCAA bid and even that probably isn’t enough.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 10-12 seed, need to win BET for Bid
Chance of Winning First Game: 50%
Projected Finish: Loss to WVA.
Notes: One player of the year candidate, plus maybe a decent pro-Friar crowd Wednesday night (most of whom will be there for Saint Johns) could help Providence win one game. But second round vs. hot Louisville should send Friars to the NIT.
School: Villanova
BET Seed: 9
Playing for: A chance to be over-seeded in the NCAA’s.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Winning BET could vault Nova to a 5 seed, winning 1-2 games probably put them in the 6-9 range.
Chance of Winning First Game: 70%
Projected Finish: Loss in Finals to Louisville.
Notes: I guess this kinda gives away where I’m going with my predictions. Villanova is a sleeping giant that could, COULD catch fire this week and be this year’s Syracuse, with great out of conference numbers and that win over Texas. The draw they got (Depaul, then Georgetown with little to play for (who they also beat)) helps a lot.
School: Depaul
BET Seed: 8
Playing for: Another fringe NCAA bubble team; at least two wins are needed to make a case.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 8-10 seed, need to win BET for Bid
Chance of Winning First Game: 30% (and even this seems high)
Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova.
Notes: Could two wins by DePaul get them in the tournament, especially with that early season victory over Kansas? I say yes, depending on how WVA, Syracuse, & other bubble teams fare. That said, I think they got a bad matchup with Villanova, so it looks like an NIT bid (with a decent chance of winning the NIT actually) is in the cards
School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 7
Playing for: Firmly on the bubble, with a win over UCLA the only thing keeping them in the discussion.
Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed, winning tournament could make them a 7 seed on reputation.
Chance of Winning First Game: 50%
Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round..
Notes: A rebuilding year for the Mountaineers after their big run two years ago (of which I hated every minute, and screwed me out of money at every turn. God, I hate these hicks. I hate them. Thanks for throwing fruit at me, you jerks. Please lose. No one likes you expect the gap-toothed freaks wearing their Pittsnoggle jerseys and…hey now, am I typing still? Thought I was just thinking that…Um, ok, back to being objective…). That first round game vs. Providence basically an NCAA elimination game, so, begrudgingly, I’ll assume that WVA gets off the bubble with a win.
Tomorrow: The top 6, and full predictions
Labels: College Basketball
Friday, March 02, 2007
That time of year...
Where I return to write about the NCAA tournament and tease a comeback.
Stay tuned for new posts starting Monday
Stay tuned for new posts starting Monday
Labels: College Basketball
