Continuing with yesterday’s post previewing the Big East Tournament…

One comment on yesterday’s post: My brother called me out on UConn’s NCAA seeding if they won the BET, claiming that there is no way UConn would be a low seed (11-12) based on reputation alone. And after thinking about it, I’m inclined to agree. Like it or not, there are some programs who, at this point, are ‘immune’ to the lower seeds, no matter how bad it’s regular season was. Just like there is no way that automatic bid, sub-par Duke team would ever be a 10 seed, there is no way Connecticut would ever be a 12 seed. The most recent example I could think of was when North Carolina was an 8 (9?) seed in 1999 with an 18-12 record.

So I stand corrected: If Jim Calhoun wins the Big East’s automatic bid, UConn will be at least a 9 seed. I hope that comforts them when they get plastered tomorrow…


Onto the Top Seeds:

School: Marquette
BET Seed: 6

Playing for: Chance to be a Protected Seed, ‘home games’ in Chicago in first two rounds

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #4 seed with a title, #5 in Finals, #6-7 otherwise, #8-9 with an awful loss to depleted SJU.

Chance of Winning First Game: 99.9999999% (Percentage Updated based on the news of Hamilton’s injury.)

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in semifinals round.

Notes: The Golden Eagles, after a big started, ‘collapsed’ late and cost themselves a bye. Fortunately, SJU beat Providence Sunday to give Marquette a bye anyway. Marquette is playing for seeding now, and could become a top 16 team with the trip to the Finals. An upset of Pitt in round 2 would be a huge start to that goal.


School: Syracuse
BET Seed: 5

Playing for: Beating UConn should, SHOULD get them into the NCAAs; a loss makes it dicey.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Deep Run= #6 seed, Probably in the 7-9 range otherwise

Chance of Winning First Game: 60%

Projected Finish: Loss to Notre Dame in 2nd round. (Gulp.)

Notes: A ho-hum out of conference schedule with no signature wins means Syracuse needs to beat UConn to feel safe. A loss and they will be nervous up until the last minute Sunday. Personally, I think this team is awful and got 10 win this year with smoke and mirrors, but WAY too many people think UConn’s winning tomorrow. (Of course, I thought the same thing about them LAST year, so I fully prepared for anything.) Syracuse should be able to stay in the BET long enough to get a bid to the Big Dance. Rooting against WVA would also help.


School: Notre Dame
BET Seed: 4

Playing for: Cap off an exciting comeback year with a Top 8 seed.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Could be anything from a #5 seed to a #8 seed.

Chance of Winning First Game: 55% (Early prediction: The gambling line for Thursday’s game vs. UConn/Syracuse will be ridiculously low.)

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in Semi-Finals.

Notes: No team will be more rested than the Irish going into Thursday’s game, having only played 1 game in the last 10 days. Notre Dame is pretty much locked into it’s seeding range; even a BE title is unlikely to get them a #4 seed. Wining the first game is enough for me to be happy. (One wildcard: Notre Dame always, ALWAYS plays awful at MSG, no matter who the opponent. And the Irish will be the ‘visiting team’ vs. either opponent on Thursday. So beware…)


School: Pittsburg
BET Seed: 3

Playing for: Need to right the ship after some late season losses dropped them behind Georgetown.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: #3 seed for getting to finals, #4 seed otherwise.

Chance of Winning First Game: 45%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round.

Notes: Pittsburg went from title contender/#1 seed to ‘another decent team’ in a matter of weeks. Personally, I think Pitt is the one of the most overrated programs in the last few years (always ranked high, they never win in the tournament), so seeing them on as a #3-4 seed instead of a #2 seed will only help come gambling pool time. I never trust Pitt to win games they’re supposed to, so I’ll take a hot Louisville team to upset them on Thursday.


School: Louisville
BET Seed: 2

Playing for: the right to be over-seeded by the committee.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: A title should make the Cardinals a #3 seed; Otherwise, will be a #4 seed.

Chance of Winning First Game: 65%

Projected Finish: Big East Title.

Notes: Led by my pick for BE Coach of the Year (Rick Pitino), Louisville is the hottest team heading into New York, having won six in a row and stealing the #2 seed from Pitt. I’m predicting Pitino takes his overachievers to the Big East automatic bid, a shocking #3 NCAA seed….and a first round exit at the hands of some midmajor upstart, continuing the ‘overseeding curse.’


School: Georgetown
BET Seed: 1

Playing for: an outside chance at a #1 seed if other national contenders fall

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: One win guarantees a 2 seed (in my opinion)

Chance of Winning First Game: 50%

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova in second round.

Notes: Clearly the class of the league this year, and barring any huge National upset, Georgetown is basically playing to move up from a #3 seed to a #2 seed. Is that enough to motivate the Hoyas? I don’t think so…That said, an extra week off could really help Georgetown prepare for a Final Four run. So losing Thursday may be a ‘good’ thing.


So to recap:

Maydogma Predictions for BET

First Round
Syracuse over UConn
Villanova over Depaul
Marquette over SJU
WVA over Providence

Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA

Second Round
Notre Dame over Syracuse
Villanova over Georgtown
Marquette over Pitt
Louisville over WVA

Semi-Finals
Villanova over Notre Dame
Louisville over Marquette

Finals
Louisville over Villanova



Maydog’s Projected Big East NCAA Bids (Seeds)

(Note: I will update this again on Saturday after the tournament plays out.)

Pitt (4)
Georgetown (3)
Louisville (3)
Notre Dame (6)
Marquette (5)
Villanova (5)
Syracuse (7)
West Virginia (11)

Labels: College Basketball

# posted by Bryan