Seeing as it’s my favorite conference tournament, I figured I’d give quick previews & predictions for the Big East tournament and what each team is playing for this week.

This year has been a so-so year for the Big East, especially following last year’s ‘first year of the expansion, two #1 seeds’ regular season. This was expected to be a rebuilding year considering the massive talent exoduses at both UConn and Villanova (and to lesser degrees, Syracuse and West Virginia.) While the top 5-7 are all solid, every team has some glaring flaws and, with the exception of Georgetown, no one looks primed for a massive run to the Final Four this year. It is just as liekly that 4-5 teams will lose in the first round to an upstart midmajor as there is of 4-5 teams making the Sweet 16. Predicting this year’s tournament is harder than ever, especially with ‘live’ lower seeds in Villanova (#9), Providence (#10), and even UConn (#12).

Keep in mind that each team is playing for a wide range of NCAA seeds this year, and the winner of the BET is always, ALWAYS ‘over-seeded’ by the committee based on their tournament win. Look no further than last year’s Syracuse team, who went from a bubble team to NCAA 5-seed overnight.

Plus, beware teams that catch fire just for the BET. With one notable exception (WVA in 2005), Teams that only look good in the Big East Tournament usually crap out quickly in the Big Dance (Providence in ‘95, Seton Hall in ’97, Saint John’s in ’01, Syracuse in ’06.)


Today, I’ll start with the bottom 6 seed, followed tomorrow by the Top 6 and full predictions.


School: Connecticut
BET Seed: 12

Playing for: ‘Super-sleeper’ pick to win tournament; most likely a home game in the NIT

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-12 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 40%

Projected Finish: Loss to Syracuse.

Notes: I guess UConn deserves to have a rebuilding year every now and then (of course, it comes the one year they don’t play Notre Dame). That said, WAY too many people are picking UConn to beat Syracuse Wednesday, which is a huge red flag to me. Enjoy the NIT; it’s about time.


School: Saint Johns
BET Seed: 11

Playing for: Just happy to be back in the BET, which a disgrace. Good job, Uncle Phil; Home game in the NIT

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 11-13 seed

Chance of Winning First Game: 2% (and even this seems high)

Projected Finish: Loss to Maquette.

Notes: Having already ‘clinched’ an NIT with their win over Providence, SJU has little left to play for and it pretty much overmatched vs. Marquette (terrible match-up for them). Keeping it close in front of the home crowd at MSG would be a nice accomplishment.


School: Providence
BET Seed: 10

Playing for: Kinda/Sorta a bubble team, needs at least two wins to even little about an NCAA bid and even that probably isn’t enough.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 10-12 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 50%

Projected Finish: Loss to WVA.

Notes: One player of the year candidate, plus maybe a decent pro-Friar crowd Wednesday night (most of whom will be there for Saint Johns) could help Providence win one game. But second round vs. hot Louisville should send Friars to the NIT.

School: Villanova
BET Seed: 9

Playing for: A chance to be over-seeded in the NCAA’s.


Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: Winning BET could vault Nova to a 5 seed, winning 1-2 games probably put them in the 6-9 range.

Chance of Winning First Game: 70%
Projected Finish: Loss in Finals to Louisville.

Notes: I guess this kinda gives away where I’m going with my predictions. Villanova is a sleeping giant that could, COULD catch fire this week and be this year’s Syracuse, with great out of conference numbers and that win over Texas. The draw they got (Depaul, then Georgetown with little to play for (who they also beat)) helps a lot.



School: Depaul
BET Seed: 8

Playing for: Another fringe NCAA bubble team; at least two wins are needed to make a case.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 8-10 seed, need to win BET for Bid

Chance of Winning First Game: 30% (and even this seems high)

Projected Finish: Loss to Villanova.

Notes: Could two wins by DePaul get them in the tournament, especially with that early season victory over Kansas? I say yes, depending on how WVA, Syracuse, & other bubble teams fare. That said, I think they got a bad matchup with Villanova, so it looks like an NIT bid (with a decent chance of winning the NIT actually) is in the cards


School: West Virginia
BET Seed: 7

Playing for: Firmly on the bubble, with a win over UCLA the only thing keeping them in the discussion.

Potential NCAA Seed with ‘good’ run: 9-11 seed, winning tournament could make them a 7 seed on reputation.

Chance of Winning First Game: 50%

Projected Finish: Loss to Louisville in second round..

Notes: A rebuilding year for the Mountaineers after their big run two years ago (of which I hated every minute, and screwed me out of money at every turn. God, I hate these hicks. I hate them. Thanks for throwing fruit at me, you jerks. Please lose. No one likes you expect the gap-toothed freaks wearing their Pittsnoggle jerseys and…hey now, am I typing still? Thought I was just thinking that…Um, ok, back to being objective…). That first round game vs. Providence basically an NCAA elimination game, so, begrudgingly, I’ll assume that WVA gets off the bubble with a win.

Tomorrow: The top 6, and full predictions

Labels: College Basketball